The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 16, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 16 July 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Rally and Economic Updates: July 16 Edition
On this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel, markets showed a positive trend across stocks and bonds, with notable index disparities. The discussion highlights a rally in small-cap stocks and changes in interest rate expectations. Key economic updates include retail sales beating expectations despite a cyber attack in the auto industry, and flat import prices for June. The episode also addresses the role of small-cap stocks in dividend and growth portfolios. Upcoming economic indicators such as housing starts, building permits, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book are also mentioned.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:13 Stock and Bond Market Rally 00:45 Sector Performance and Market Rotation 01:25 Economic Indicators and Retail Sales 02:12 Small Caps and Portfolio Strategy 02:56 Upcoming Economic Events 03:11 Conclusion and Recap
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Tuesday, July the 16th. And this is Brian Sightel with you here today on a very positive day in markets, |
| 0:21.7 | pretty much across the board, although there was at least some disparity on the different |
| 0:25.6 | indexes, but you had a significant rally in stocks. That's coming off of yesterday's move higher |
| 0:31.0 | as well, and you had a rally in the bond market as well. It's 10-year yield dropped on the day |
| 0:36.6 | and we're into the high teens, |
| 0:38.5 | 4.19, 4.18 range on 10s. Rally across the board in stocks and bonds. Notable in today's move |
| 0:45.4 | wasn't just that the Dow was higher like that. It was that the other indices like the S&P and the |
| 0:51.3 | NASDAQ, particularly that are much more technology driven, were so far different. |
| 0:56.2 | And frankly, NASDAQ was slightly lower. |
| 0:58.0 | Part of this is that rotation that continues to happen to a broadening in the market, you're seeing some better participation with parts like small cap names now up five days in a row, which is over a 10% move. |
| 1:14.6 | They had been big laggards and interest rate expectations are coming lower. There's now 65 basis points of rate cuts priced in. |
| 1:18.6 | So a pretty significant move in those expectations. |
| 1:21.6 | And you're seeing that rotation from growth to value. |
| 1:24.6 | Just keep unfolding almost day by day. |
| 1:26.6 | Sectors that were up were things |
| 1:27.9 | like financials today, reets, travel, more cyclical value oriented names like that. On the economic |
| 1:35.8 | calendar, you had retail sales, beat expectations in June, and also May was revised higher. We got |
| 1:42.6 | basically an unchanged number, a flat number of zero, |
| 1:45.8 | but we were expecting a negative four-tenths. So a decent beat in retail sales and continued |
| 1:51.3 | strength in the consumer. That's technically the highest in three months. The weakness, by the way, |
| 1:57.2 | inside of that, even though it beat, it would have beat by much more, but there was a cyber attack in the auto industry. |
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