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The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - July 25, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Growth Investing, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Monetary Policy, Business, Retirement Planning, Investing, Estate Planning

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 25 July 2024

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Market Volatility and Economic Indicators: Insights from Dividend Cafe – July 25

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the volatile market activity on July 25th, where the Dow saw significant fluctuations before closing up 81 points, while NASDAQ and S&P ended the day lower. Key economic updates include a much stronger than expected preliminary GDP at 2.8%, stable jobless claims, and mixed durable goods orders. The session highlights a continued rotation from high-valuation sectors to value sectors like energy and financials. Listeners are advised to anticipate upcoming PCE data and reminded of the need for personalized investment advice.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe

00:19 Market Volatility Recap

01:23 Economic Data Highlights

02:21 Durable Goods Orders Analysis

03:05 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Data

03:31 Disclaimer and Legal Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.7

Welcome to Dividendin Cafe. It is Thursday, July the 25th. Brian Saitel with you here again today. And it was quite a volatile day really in markets. You had kind of morning weakness. The Dow was positive, but just hardly. It was up maybe 40 points. But both the NASDAQ and the S&P were quite lower on the day. And then those things tended to reverse around midday. You had a Dow that was up over 500 points and a NASDAQ and S&P that were also positive close to a percent, not quite on the day.

0:41.5

And then end of the afternoon, basically we just reverted to the morning action.

0:45.8

And yeah, Dow closed up about 81 points.

0:48.6

NASDAQ was down 0.9%.

0:50.7

S&P was down 0.5%.

0:52.8

So again, more rotation from some of the higher valuation

0:58.0

sectors of the markets like technology and communications and consumer discretionary into some

1:02.8

of those other sectors on the value side and frankly on the dividend growth side, which are

1:07.2

things like energy, industrials, financials, and some materials. Continued rotation on the day there.

1:13.1

We had interest rates up slightly, about three basis points on the day, closed up 425 on the 10-year.

1:19.1

We got some economic data today.

1:21.3

Preliminary GDP came out at 2.8%, which is far above consensus at about 1.9% for the quarter. So some pretty strong GDP

1:30.6

numbers for the quarter. These things can get revised up or down, of course. So take that for what

1:35.2

it is. It's preliminary first read. But that puts an annualized number at 3.1, and we were only

1:41.4

expecting 2.9. So some strong numbers on GDP basically led by consumption and then

1:46.6

some inventory build. So we'll see if there's revisions on those figures. Otherwise, it looks

1:51.5

quite good, really. Some initial jobless claims today were basically in line. They were actually

1:56.0

a little bit better. We came in at 235. We were expecting 239. And same thing on existing claims, more or less right in line. We got about 1.85 million on existing. So employment pinging in there, slightly cooler than it was, say six months ago, but still quite healthy. We had durable goods orders today that frankly disappointed for the month of June, they were down

2:18.0

6.6%, which is the lowest technically since the pandemic started in April of 2020. But when he

2:24.0

peeled back, and by the way, we were expecting about a half a percent increase, a negative

2:27.4

6 percent versus a 0.5 percent increase is a big difference on expectations. But if you strip out

...

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