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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Wednesday September 14, 2022

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy, Investing, Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Estate Planning

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 14 September 2022

⏱️ 13 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The day after the market sell-off you had a small move higher in each equity index but I unpack it all and then some here …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +30 points (+0.10%) S&P: +0.34% Nasdaq: +0.74% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.41% (- 1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-1.39%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (+1.57%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Even as the Consumer Price Index came in a bit higher than expected yesterday, the Producer Price Index dropped -0.1% in August (consensus was for no change)

ASK DAVID “When you refer to the futures market predicting a 88% chance of a 75bp rate hike or whatever the percentage and outcome may be, how is that determined?”

~ Don D.

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) makes a market in fed funds rate futures. Real people using real money to buy real futures contracts on what the real rate may be at real future intervals. This futures market is the gold standard of measuring market expectations around the fed funds rate. ON DECK I will be on set co-hosting for an hour tomorrow with Stuart Varney (9am-10am ET) on Fox Business.

CHECK OUT I was on set with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business early this morning talking energy, inflation, markets, growth, and more. A worthwhile interview!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:13.0

Well, hello and welcome to another day of the DC today, a podcast. We had kind of a up and down day throughout markets, all three indexes closed in

0:23.7

positive territory. There was a bit of intraday volatility, though, not anything massive,

0:29.6

but look, the Dow ended up closing up just 10 basis points. I think it was about 30 points or so. And yet it traded in a 400 point range

0:40.5

up and down on the day. And so you you had kind of an uncertainty. Not a big surprise there. The NASDAQ was up

0:50.8

74 basis points and the S&P was up 34 basis points. So, you know, you kind of stopped

0:58.6

going down today, but there wasn't any meaningful bounce to note. I would point out, though, that

1:04.9

energy was the top performing sector to the upside today. And it was pretty meaningful. It was up

1:10.7

two and a half percent.

1:13.5

And the worst performing sector was real estate, a bit more rate sensitive. I think it was down

1:20.2

about 1.3. The interesting thing that I want to comment on is that big tech, not just technology at large, NASDAQ,

1:31.0

there's a lot of smaller cap and junkier names that did pretty well in that little recovery

1:35.7

from late August up through yesterday. But like Fang and the big cap names, they really lagged even in the recovery. And then in

1:50.2

the huge selloff of about 1,300 points yesterday and a down over 5% day for the NASDAQ, they

1:57.8

were down more. So it's very uncommon that you would have something kind of lag on the

2:04.3

upside and then lag again on the downside. I think it does speak to a shift that we've been seeing

2:10.6

for some time play out in leadership in the market. And I just simply do not believe that leadership

2:15.6

resides in big cap tech right now. And it'll be interesting

2:19.8

to see how more of that plays out. So, you know, the average stock in the market right now is

2:26.6

doing better than the overall market. And it can happen the opposite as well. But what that

2:31.2

basically means is because of the cap weighted nature of the market,

2:36.2

where bigger size companies are weighted a lot higher, that if you're doing real well in

...

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