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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 6, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Monetary Policy, Dividend Growth Investing, Investing, Wealth Management, Estate Planning, Retirement Planning, Business, Macro Economics

4.9 • 572 Ratings

🗓️ 6 March 2024

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3P9T82G

After two down days to start the week, we closed higher on the day after Powell’s comments to Congress. He reiterated a peak in rates and a plan to lower rates once he has more data to confirm that 2% path beforehand. We have a more chart-heavy DC Today for you (my favorite), as the information pictorially is too good to pass up.

Today, we got ADP payroll numbers largely in line with expectations, and there are reasons employment and, frankly, this market has defied all that doubted it in the wake of this meteoric rise in interest rates. Rising markets, tightening credit spreads, low jobless claims, fiscal deficits at 6% of GDP, and infrastructure spending have all eased financial conditions to become EASIER than where they were BEFORE the Fed began raising interest rates from the zero bound.

We have spoken about both consumers’ and corporations’ resilience from rising rates as they locked in lower rates before this cycle, but the financial conditions in green in the chart below show the backdrop of the market’s resilience in light of rates as well.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:13.5

Hello and welcome to D.C. today this Wednesday, March the 6th. Great to be with you here. I'm in our Newport Beach, California office studio,

0:22.9

and a nice little update in markets. Not a huge update. We actually came off of the highs for the day.

0:31.4

We were up around 230, 240, something like that a few hours ago, ended up closing up just 75 points on the Dow.

0:39.3

Ten year yields continue to drift lower. At this point we've gone from about a 430

0:45.3

yield, I call it seven days ago, to today closing at 411. So on the day we were down about three basis points.

0:52.3

So still a drift lower in interest rates.

0:57.0

There was some angst yesterday.

0:59.1

Markets dropped 400 points yesterday.

1:00.8

And part of that was just worry that Powell was going to say something more hawkish to Congress today in his semi-annual testimony.

1:07.6

He really didn't, just like I frankly assumed, which is that he just reiterated

1:12.3

what he has said before, that peak rates have likely been set, and they're going to lower

1:18.4

rates sometime this year, but they want to see some more data before, you know, just to confirm

1:23.2

a path on 2%. So all fine and good. Markets were a little relieved, and so we got a little bit of

1:28.4

a recovery from yesterday out of it. We don't always put charts in the midweek versions of DC today.

1:36.3

We did a few today just because I thought they were really quite good. But the chart in the

1:41.8

beginning is referencing the financial conditions, basically.

1:45.9

So it's saying, you know, resiliency in markets after rates have gone from zero to five

1:51.2

and a half percent was not something most would have assumed.

1:54.7

In fact, frankly, nobody did.

1:57.2

You know, the idea that the world would keep spinning, the U.S. would keep growing at, you know,

2:02.1

twos and threes on GDP, and that earnings would still grow at 10 percent, and the housing

...

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