The DC Today - Thursday, March 7, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 7 March 2024
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3T43
A second positive day in markets and one with a little more conviction than yesterday, with the SP500 notching a new high. Powell gave his second day of testimony to Congress. Lagarde at the ECB held rates unchanged at 4%, although he did tilt the scales more toward assuredness that inflation was lower and June was the base case on when rates start to move lower. I have more conviction in the US waiting until June with growth forecasts in the mid-2 % range than I do the ECB, given GDP forecasts in Germany are a tenth of that at .25%, but we shall see. Higher debt levels lead to lower growth, lead to lower rates – rinse, wash, and repeat.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.8 | Hello and welcome to D.C. today this Thursday, March the 7th. And great to be back with you here again today from Newport Beach, California. |
| 0:22.6 | And a nice update in markets today. |
| 0:25.6 | We had an update slightly yesterday, but a little more conviction today. |
| 0:30.6 | We closed up about 130 points on the Dow. |
| 0:33.6 | The S&P was up 1%, a little over 1%, and notched a new all-time high, closed at 51-57. |
| 0:42.2 | So again, from remembering back when it was in the 600s, it's surreal to see where it is. |
| 0:48.5 | Ten-year was down, just a basis point on the day. We closed at 409 on tens. And global yields, by the way, and basically |
| 0:56.6 | the tops call it 30 countries, are all trending lower. Japan is a little bit of an outlier, |
| 1:01.9 | but more or less, rates are moving lower as inflation is abating basically globally because of |
| 1:08.8 | supply chain easing and all of that. But on the day, Powell finished his |
| 1:13.9 | second day of testimony to Congress and more of the same there, not necessarily market moving. |
| 1:22.4 | Christine Lagarde in Europe, who runs the ECB, the European Central Bank, kept rates the same at 4%. |
| 1:30.2 | Although she did tilt her, had a little bit more towards inflation, moving back towards the |
| 1:36.4 | number that they need to see in order to cut rates. And my comment was more around, you know, |
| 1:41.6 | they've said June is the date that they think they're going to do that. |
| 1:45.3 | And, you know, UK and ECB, they do tend to follow the U.S. |
| 1:49.5 | There's a lot of reasons for that. |
| 1:51.2 | But the growth paradigm in Europe is just much different than the U.S. |
| 1:56.3 | We're looking at 2 to 2.5% GDP growth for 2024 here and something like a tenth of that in the biggest |
| 2:05.3 | economy in Europe, which is Germany, at about a quarter of a percent. So whether they can wait till |
| 2:11.1 | June before they need to cut rates or not, as we'll see, I'm less convinced that they'll be able to, |
... |
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