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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Thursday, March 7, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Monetary Policy, Dividend Growth Investing, Investing, Wealth Management, Estate Planning, Retirement Planning, Business, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 7 March 2024

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3T43

A second positive day in markets and one with a little more conviction than yesterday, with the SP500 notching a new high. Powell gave his second day of testimony to Congress. Lagarde at the ECB held rates unchanged at 4%, although he did tilt the scales more toward assuredness that inflation was lower and June was the base case on when rates start to move lower. I have more conviction in the US waiting until June with growth forecasts in the mid-2 % range than I do the ECB, given GDP forecasts in Germany are a tenth of that at .25%, but we shall see. Higher debt levels lead to lower growth, lead to lower rates – rinse, wash, and repeat.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:13.8

Hello and welcome to D.C. today this Thursday, March the 7th. And great to be back with you here again today from Newport Beach, California.

0:22.6

And a nice update in markets today.

0:25.6

We had an update slightly yesterday, but a little more conviction today.

0:30.6

We closed up about 130 points on the Dow.

0:33.6

The S&P was up 1%, a little over 1%, and notched a new all-time high, closed at 51-57.

0:42.2

So again, from remembering back when it was in the 600s, it's surreal to see where it is.

0:48.5

Ten-year was down, just a basis point on the day. We closed at 409 on tens. And global yields, by the way, and basically

0:56.6

the tops call it 30 countries, are all trending lower. Japan is a little bit of an outlier,

1:01.9

but more or less, rates are moving lower as inflation is abating basically globally because of

1:08.8

supply chain easing and all of that. But on the day, Powell finished his

1:13.9

second day of testimony to Congress and more of the same there, not necessarily market moving.

1:22.4

Christine Lagarde in Europe, who runs the ECB, the European Central Bank, kept rates the same at 4%.

1:30.2

Although she did tilt her, had a little bit more towards inflation, moving back towards the

1:36.4

number that they need to see in order to cut rates. And my comment was more around, you know,

1:41.6

they've said June is the date that they think they're going to do that.

1:45.3

And, you know, UK and ECB, they do tend to follow the U.S.

1:49.5

There's a lot of reasons for that.

1:51.2

But the growth paradigm in Europe is just much different than the U.S.

1:56.3

We're looking at 2 to 2.5% GDP growth for 2024 here and something like a tenth of that in the biggest

2:05.3

economy in Europe, which is Germany, at about a quarter of a percent. So whether they can wait till

2:11.1

June before they need to cut rates or not, as we'll see, I'm less convinced that they'll be able to,

...

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