The DC Today - Wednesday, January 3, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 3 January 2024
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RMxbqz
A second down day in the new year, and of course two days isn’t a trend but frankly after nine consecutive positive weeks in markets, some consolidation and back filling is healthy and welcome. I do hope you all are feeling as refreshed and recharged after your Holiday time with family and friends as I am, and while there was less Christmas snow in Utah then I would have liked, there is plenty of fresh market data for us to go through today.
While 2023 saw an outperformance of growth over value, as it essentially just recouped what it lost the year prior, its interesting to note the recent shift the other way. From the lows of late October, the SP500 rallied 17%, but the equal weighted index outperformed large cap tech by a shocking 5% with a rotation to value. As David mentioned this morning on CNBC, starting point valuations can be critical for investor outcomes. With an average estimate for earnings in 2024 at $244 a share, the SP500 trades at 20X earnings. Equal weighted, you get something closer to 16X and some of this recent rotation appears cognizant of those other sectors offering better relative value. Could this continue? Well, while markets were meaningfully higher last year, the largest flows still went to money market funds at +$1.34T, which now hold a stunning $5.87T of cash (aka dry powder).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.9 | Hello, welcome to D.C. today, my first time here with you, at least in 2024 in the new year. It's Wednesday, January the 3rd, and I'm here with you in Newport Beach Office Studio. |
| 0:25.6 | So another down day in markets, all of two, I guess, so far in the new year. |
| 0:31.9 | And I don't know that that necessarily makes any sort of trend. |
| 0:35.0 | And frankly, with, you know, having a nine-week run-up of, call it 15 plus percent |
| 0:41.0 | in S&Ps, getting a couple of days of some consolidation. It's healthy. It's normal. Frankly, |
| 0:47.8 | you know, it's welcome as far as I'm concerned. I'm putting money to work every day. And so having |
| 0:52.7 | some normalcy in how markets |
| 0:54.5 | trade versus just a one-way ticket is appreciated technically, even though it's a down day. Tens were |
| 1:00.6 | slightly lower today. We had two bases point move. We closed at 391. So largely unchanged there. |
| 1:08.3 | We flirted actually with 4% intraday. |
| 1:11.7 | So we got a little move above 4, just touched 4, and then kind of came back down. |
| 1:16.5 | There was some inline numbers that came out. |
| 1:20.6 | We had ISM that came out at 47.2, which was just a little bit above what we were expecting at 47, sorry, |
| 1:30.0 | came out 47.4, we're expecting 47.2. So about inline. So it's still contractionary. So it's saying |
| 1:36.8 | some of that manufacturing data is just a little bit below what would be expansionary |
| 1:41.9 | inside of a growing economy, but largely in line. |
| 1:45.9 | We had job openings today that were also largely in line, but actually a little bit better. |
| 1:52.4 | We're running at about $8.8 million at this point, which while it's the lowest that we've seen |
| 1:57.7 | in a couple years, we call it three years. It is still very healthy. |
| 2:02.7 | The labor market is still holding its own just fine. We had a high of around 12 million. |
| 2:09.5 | That was in 2022, beginning of 22. So you can kind of see that post-COVID anomaly just go through |
... |
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