The DC Today - Thursday, January 4, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 4 January 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Oe52YT
Generally positive markets this morning lost momentum throughout the trading day with the Dow closing completely flat and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down a pinch. Yields were up on the day, with the 10-year back to just under 4%, and Fed futures starting to show a little less conviction on a rate cut in March (albeit still at a 64% chance). We had some better-than-expected payroll numbers today, and with slightly lower new Job openings yesterday are slowly but surely seeing a supply imbalance normalization in employment. We have roughly 162MM people currently employed in this country, with another 8.8MM new job openings posted, so call about 171MM on the demand side. The current US labor force is roughly 168MM, so while not perfectly matched (still more demand), it is getting there and what the Fed wants to see.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.1 | Hello, welcome to D.C. today. It's Thursday, January the 4th, and I'm pleased to present the first update of the year in 2024, albeit |
| 0:24.6 | just barely. The Dow was up about 10 points on the day, which is 0.03%, basically flat. The NASDAQ and |
| 0:32.3 | the S&P are both lower on the day, so I'm not really sure if that really counts. The 10 year today was up |
| 0:38.7 | eight bases points. So you get a little move up higher and interest rates. We closed just off |
| 0:43.5 | 4%. So still hovering, still have a three handle, but 3.99% on 10s for the day. Fairly benign day |
| 0:51.6 | of trading. There was ADP payroll numbers that came out today they were |
| 0:57.0 | better than expected decent amount better we we got 164 on new private payrolls versus |
| 1:03.5 | 125,000 expected and 101 which was no last month November so nice, nice picture on employment on private payrolls, which is always good. |
| 1:16.0 | A big needle mover inside of the number was hospitality, leisure and hospitality, which was up |
| 1:21.5 | 59,000 of the 164, which just having traveled, I can definitely vouch for there. |
| 1:28.9 | Initial jobless claims came out a little better than expected. |
| 1:32.9 | They were 202 versus 216. |
| 1:35.8 | So again, labor market hanging in there quite well, and those are good things. |
| 1:40.3 | We've got an actual non-farm payroll number tomorrow on Friday with an update to unemployment |
| 1:47.0 | that we'll kind of focus on. But so far today, this was good. I wrote a little bit about |
| 1:53.1 | just the state of the labor market and number terms in there as well. So the Fed, you know, we sort of |
| 1:58.9 | had an imbalance. We had, you know, 12 million as of 22 |
| 2:01.9 | job openings posted. We now have about 8.8. So if you looked at total employment in the country |
| 2:08.1 | of about 162 million people working, and about 8.8, call it 9, we'll round up new openings. |
| 2:17.0 | You've got about 171 million of demand on the |
| 2:20.8 | labor force side with the current labor force at about 168 million. So they're almost perfectly matched, |
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