The DC Today - Wednesday, December 6, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 6 December 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/486oKwS
If you’re surprised by how much expectations have turned down for U.S. interest rates and Fed policy in 2024, you should see what those crazy cats in Europe have going. Markets are now fully pricing in SIX rate cuts next year – 1.5% reduction in their lending rate.
Bank CEOs testified before the Senate finance committee today, making the case that the planned increase in capital requirements would be detrimental. They specifically pointed to where the cost of such increased capital would come from – customers. A not-unexpected talk.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Bakersfield, CA) announced his resignation from Congress today. I hereby predict he will make more money in 2024 than he did in 2023.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.9 | Well, hello and welcome to the Wednesday edition of DC Today. I would say it's another reasonably boring day in the markets. The Dow ended up, |
| 0:23.4 | it was up or flat, most of the day. It ended up down 70 points, so just 0.19%. And then the S&P was exactly |
| 0:31.7 | 20 basis points worse than that, down 0.39%. And the NASDAQ was exactly 20 basis points worse than that, down 0.59%. So, |
| 0:42.9 | all three market indices down a bit, kind of proportionally worse from Dow to S&P to NASDAQ. |
| 0:50.1 | Best performing sector today was utilities. It's generally, by the way, not going to be a great day in the market when utilities are |
| 0:57.6 | the leader, but they were up a full 1.4%. |
| 1:01.3 | And then energy was, again, the worst day in the market down 1.6% with oil prices down over |
| 1:07.3 | 4% on the day closing below $70 in the 69 plus change. |
| 1:14.5 | The bond market rallying again, the tenure all the way down to 412 basis points, 4.12% down 5 basis |
| 1:23.7 | points today. |
| 1:25.0 | So there has been a tiny bit of breakup lately here, just a matter of days, |
| 1:30.1 | of that correlation between stocks and bonds. You've had bonds continue to rally. Stocks has sort of |
| 1:35.9 | sputtered a little bit, nothing severe, but based on how tight the correlation has been, |
| 1:41.8 | and really how tight we kind of expect it to stay. It's at least noteworthy. |
| 1:46.2 | In terms of economic data, first, the European Central Bank, the ECB, the futures market is pricing in |
| 1:56.9 | six rate cuts for next year, more severe than people are expecting the Fed to do, and they're |
| 2:05.4 | expecting the ECB to start first. |
| 2:08.4 | So 150 basis points theoretically coming out of the deposit rate at the European Central |
| 2:13.7 | Bank. |
| 2:14.6 | Of course, the futures market could be wrong, but that's what the market expectation |
| 2:18.3 | is now, which is quite surprising. The ADP private payrolls number came this morning, |
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