The DC Today - Tuesday, December 5, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 5 December 2023
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4a8TMWG
As we get ready for a busy week of jobs data a few things stick out:
(1) The weekly jobless claims remain very low which seems to indicate a continued healthy employment market
(2) The “quits” rate (people voluntarily leaving their job) has been very high, and even as it has come down from early 2022 highs, it remains very elevated historically
(3) The number of job openings remains very high (though it fell to 8.7 million this month, still 1.5-2 million higher than pre-COVID average, but well off 2021 highs)
(4) The average work week has steadily declined on the margin (from 35 hours, which was above the 15-year average, to 34.25 hours, which is below the average).
(5) Several data points have softened in recent months, but not softened to what can be called “weak” conditions – just “less strong” than had been the case previously
A few other market tidbits and things that caught my eye today …
It is interesting to me that small cap value has outperformed growth since the turn in the middle of the year, but large cap growth has modestly outperformed large cap value. The two are normally correlated.
Some of the “big seven” names that have driven a lot of the market this year have not moved at all in six months (well, they have moved up and down, but I mean they currently sit flat from where they were this summer). The broader market has begun playing a little catch-up.
2024 earnings expectations are now up to $246/share in the S&P 500. We are likely going to end at $221 for 2023 so this would mean earnings growth of +11.3% in 2024, rather amazing if it happened. Of course, at that earnings level, the S&P is still trading at an 18.6x multiple (forward projected), and is trading currently at 20.7x.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.5 | Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the DC Today markets down a little bit today. |
| 0:20.9 | NASDAQ was actually up a little. |
| 0:22.9 | I'll do the market recap real quickly. |
| 0:26.0 | I want to talk a little bit about the state of the jobs market. |
| 0:29.6 | As far as the market today, Dow was down 79 points, just 0.2%. |
| 0:34.3 | S&P barely down six basis points. |
| 0:42.3 | NASDAQ barely up, up 30 basis points. Pretty good rally in the bond market, 10 year all the way down to 4.18% down 11 basis points. So rally continuing in bonds. |
| 0:53.3 | Top performing sector was technology in the stock market, up 82 bit basis points. So a rally continuing in bonds. Top performing sector was technology in the stock market, |
| 0:55.9 | up 82 basis points. Energy was down 1.7%. Pretty big hit today to the energy and production, |
| 1:04.8 | exploration and production side of energy. The crude oil price closed still at 72.50, down about 80 basis points, |
| 1:14.5 | not a huge move in oil. In terms of the job market, a few things going on at once, |
| 1:23.9 | the weekly jobless claims remain very low. That seems to indicate continued healthy |
| 1:30.8 | employment. The quits rate has definitely come lower, but it had been quite high. People |
| 1:37.9 | voluntarily leaving their job. And even though it's come down from those highs of 2022, early 22, it's still elevated historically. |
| 1:49.1 | The number of job openings remains quite high. |
| 1:53.0 | Now, this number is called the Joltz data, and it came in today for last month, down several |
| 1:59.2 | hundred thousand from where I've been the month before but it came in at |
| 2:01.9 | 8.7 million so yeah the days of 10 11 million job openings has definitely gone away but on that average |
| 2:10.3 | at around six and a half to seven million for years pre-COVID we're still you know one and a half to |
| 2:17.4 | two million above that |
| 2:18.8 | rate on an ongoing basis. The average work week has steadily declined on the margin. And what we're |
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