The DC Today - Wednesday, August 30, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
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🗓️ 30 August 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sAjvX7
Futures looked like we were going to give a little back from the move higher the past three days until about 830AM EST when we got a slew of softer than expected economic data, and since bad news is the new good for markets, moved us back into positive territory on the day. Q2 GDP was revised a little lower, ADP Payroll came in weaker than expected, and the part that is actually good news (meaning not a number showing our economy quite as fast as we thought and less people are finding jobs), Core PCE came in lower than expected for Q2. After yesterdays softer job openings and then today, fed fund futures are slowly tilting back towards peak rates but we are still at 55% pause and 45% hike for Nov/Dec. A good amount of numbers below for you, and a better amount of walking through it all in the video podcast link.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.8 | Hello and welcome to D.C. today. It is now Wednesday, August the 30th. And after a couple of nice updays here, as we finished out the last week of summer, |
| 0:26.5 | it looked like, at least in the morning, that we were going to give maybe a little bit of that back, not a lot. |
| 0:31.5 | And then we got sort of a slew of different, technically weaker than expected economic data. |
| 0:38.8 | And markets tended to kind of perk up right before the open. |
| 0:41.7 | And then we opened up. |
| 0:43.1 | We were up about 150 points, you know, right after maybe an hour after the open and just sort of drifted sideways, a little bit lower. |
| 0:52.4 | We actually held on the gains for most of the day. And we ended up |
| 0:55.8 | closing up on the day, marginally for for today, which is, which is Wednesday. We're up about |
| 1:03.0 | 37 points on the day. So biggest news on the day, again, we had some yields come down a little |
| 1:10.3 | bit. Two-year yields are now at 487. Again, they had some yields come down a little bit. Two-year yields are now at |
| 1:12.2 | 487. Again, they were at 510 a few days ago. So that's development and some of the reason is for, |
| 1:19.1 | again, some of the data that's come out has been a little weaker. It's actually sort of porridge |
| 1:23.0 | is just right. It's not really falling off a cliff. It's just slowing down a little bit. And so if there's |
| 1:28.5 | those in that soft landing camp, that's what we're seeing as of right now, I guess this week. There's a |
| 1:34.0 | number tomorrow. I think that I'll paint another part to that picture and then another on Friday, |
| 1:39.1 | really. But pay rule, ADP payroll out today came out at 177. |
| 1:45.0 | It was 200 expected. |
| 1:47.0 | So jobs number was a little less than expected. |
| 1:49.0 | Just keep in mind that for July, it was revised, that was for August. |
| 1:53.0 | For July, it was revised up from $324,000 for the month to $371,000. |
| 1:59.0 | So, you know, last month was showing a more robust labor market. This is a little less. |
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