The DC Today - Tuesday, August 29, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 29 August 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3L3fHUy
The third up day in a row in markets today in a broad-based rally that closed at the high. The S&P 500 is still down 2% for the month, but with three trading days left in the last week of summer, we’ll see if we get a little more back before Labor Day weekend. Yields were lower across the entire curve today, with treasuries rallying following a much lower-than-expected July JOLTS new jobs report. Following yesterday’s underwhelming market response to stimulus, China is considering having its major banks decrease mortgage rates on about 38 trillion yuan ($5T) worth of existing loans which moved markets there up 2% on the day. Whether those efforts will prove effective will have to be seen, but I do think it’s putting a bid in global energy prices, which were up again today.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.4 | Hello and welcome to DC today. It is Tuesday, August 29th. It's good to be back with you today. Good day at markets. In fact, |
| 0:23.6 | it's the third day in a row in August that we've been up here, which is nice. August has been a |
| 0:29.3 | negative month in equities. So far, we're down about a little less than 2%, probably 1.8% or something on the month on the S&P 500. |
| 0:39.9 | But a couple up days in a row I'll take before the last week of summer here ends, and we hit Labor Day. |
| 0:45.8 | There was news today. The biggest news was the Joltz report, which is a new job opening report that comes out. |
| 0:50.9 | It was expected to have something like 9.5 million, roughly 9.478 million, |
| 0:57.2 | and we got much lower than that, about 8.827 million. So it's if you're, and I'm not necessarily, |
| 1:04.7 | frankly, but if you're looking at something like the Phillips curve where you need more unemployment |
| 1:09.0 | or a lousy or a weakening jobs |
| 1:11.2 | picture in order to have inflation come down, then this was a tip of the hat for that happening |
| 1:17.1 | today a little bit. I do think the Fed is looking at that as one of their metrics. Fewer job openings, |
| 1:22.3 | potentially with the same amount of people looking for work, could potentially mean a little |
| 1:26.2 | higher unemployment. It's basically one of the things the Fed wants to see. |
| 1:30.0 | There's other things, too. |
| 1:31.3 | This week we have the official jobs number will be on Friday, but we've got ADP payroll |
| 1:36.4 | tomorrow, which was 324 last month, so it was much better. |
| 1:40.1 | And so we're looking for something below 200,000, I think it would be market friendly. |
| 1:44.1 | Maybe a 170 would be good. |
| 1:46.1 | But if you got a combination of the Joltz report today, ADP tomorrow that comes in somewhere below 200, |
| 1:52.1 | and then a PCE number on Thursday that is something around 0.2% for the month, if all those things |
| 1:58.3 | line up, I do think you'll have Fed futures start to move a little bit |
... |
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