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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Tuesday, November 7, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Estate Planning, Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Investing, Monetary Policy, Dividend Growth Investing, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 7 November 2023

⏱️ 11 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46Z4Xj5

This is the longest winning streak (number of up days) for the S&P 500 in two years. One of the least encouraging things? The delta between cap-weighted and equal-weighted results … Top-heavy doesn’t end well. But nevertheless, markets are enjoying a very strong rally over the last week and a half.

Oil was hit hard today (down over -4%). Some traders think things will settle in the Middle East.

It appears S&P earnings growth year-over-year for this earnings season is going to top +5.7%, with revenue growth of +1.2%. Margin expansion has been something to behold and has a lot to do with market resilience in this challenging rate period.

Office behemoth WeWork, officially declared bankruptcy. Shiny objects are painful to watch implode. The ramifications to commercial office space will be notable, but it does appear creditor restructuring has been reasonably pre-negotiated and is not likely to result in huge vacancies hitting the market.

For all the weakness in manufacturing and insistence that construction is hurting and (especially) China’s weakness, why is iron ore doing so well and copper basically hanging in there?

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:14.2

Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the DC Today. The S&P and NASDAQ have been up seven days in a row, which is the

0:23.5

longest winning streak in about two years. And so from that big selloff we had had,

0:30.6

as bond yields were going higher near the end of October. And then what has taken place in the last couple days of October

0:38.6

here into the first week of November, you've had quite a significant rally. Now, you know,

0:44.0

let's caveat this a little. The delta between the cap weighted S&P 500 and the equal weighted

0:52.5

or even weighted S&P 500 is pretty big.

0:56.4

You know, what does that mean?

0:57.8

It is a way of saying that the returns are very top heavy, right?

1:02.9

That you could take all 500 companies with an equal weighting in the S&P and get a certain return.

1:08.8

And when it's a meaningfully higher number in the way that the

1:12.3

S&P is constructed with the proportionality of the index being the market capitalization of the

1:19.4

company, it means those large multi-trillion dollar companies, trillion dollar companies,

1:25.2

$700 billion, $800 billion, $500 billion,

1:27.9

those very large companies carry a much bigger weight.

1:31.1

The smaller companies carry a much smaller weight.

1:33.9

And what that means when the delta between that latter methodology versus the even-weighted,

1:39.6

when the delta is large, it means you have a very top-heavy market,

1:43.7

and that is generally much less sustainable.

1:46.6

Nevertheless, good returns for the market.

1:50.5

The Dow itself up 12, 1,300 points in the last seven market days.

1:57.7

Oil was down over 4% today.

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