The DC Today - Tuesday February 7, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 7 February 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Lots of chatter from Fed Governors these days with Kashkari saying we need higher rates for longer, Bostic in Atlanta saying January’s jobs report speaks to another rate hike (which was already priced in), but now today Jerome Powell basically reaffirming his message of last week, which is one of an imminent pause. Right now, we see a 91% chance of a quarter-point hike at the next meeting and a 70% chance of one more quarter-point hike after that.
Dow: +266 points (+0.78%) S&P: +1.29% Nasdaq: +1.90% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.68% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.08%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.36%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.37/barrel (+4.40%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
Bond yields have jumped 37 basis points since the 1st of the month on the short end of the curve The trade deficit came in at $67.4 billion for December, a tad less than expected. Exports were up +7.6% last year (energy had to help) and imports were up +2% on the year. Those divergent rates led to a decline in the trade deficit, but unfortunately, a decline of -2.5% in total trade for Q4 and -1.1% for Q3 brought total trade for 2022 down to just +4.4% versus a year ago.
Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3DPsyG2 DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.6 | Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday, D.C. today. It kind of feels like a Fed day, even though it wasn't a Fed day in the sense |
| 0:23.3 | of the FOMC meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee. There was no rate announcement |
| 0:28.2 | and there was no official press conference around rate policy. But because Jerome Powell |
| 0:35.1 | gave a speech today and a number of other Fed governors are getting their |
| 0:39.3 | moments of fame and then you had a lot of market volatility around intraday Fed talk. |
| 0:47.1 | It felt like a Fed day. |
| 0:48.6 | So bottom line today, and I'm going to go kind of quickly for you. The Dow ended up being up 266 points, |
| 0:57.8 | and that amounts to a 0.78% return up on the Dow. And I'm going to caveat that in a moment, |
| 1:06.2 | but the S&P was up 1.29%, and the NASDAQ up 1.9. |
| 1:11.9 | So you had a pretty substantial move higher across all risk assets, particularly these |
| 1:16.3 | equity market indices. |
| 1:18.2 | But the Dow was floating around up, you know, a few points, kind of flattish. |
| 1:25.0 | And then it skyrocketed up 260 within minutes of Jerome Powell talking. |
| 1:30.5 | And then it dropped to down a couple hundred points. And then it went higher nonstop for the remaining |
| 1:39.0 | two hours, two and a half hours of trading to close up 265. |
| 1:45.0 | So the point I'm making is that you got a four or five hundred point swing in a few minutes |
| 1:51.0 | up for really no reason, down for really no reason, continuing on forward. |
| 1:56.0 | And when I say no reason, I mean no fundamental reason, but technically there was a reason, which is the |
| 2:02.7 | removal of those shorts that had come into today, you know, believing there was a possibility |
| 2:09.8 | of hawkish talk from J-PAL, which I would, you know, I don't really believe in making my living |
| 2:15.9 | or putting my client's outcomes in the hands of these |
... |
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