The DC Today - Monday, February 6, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 6 February 2023
⏱️ 11 minutes
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Summary
Futures opened last night down -80 points and stayed down near -100 points into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a down -200 point open pre-market. The market opened down -150 points, worsened a bit, and then steadily improved throughout the day. The Dow closed down -36 points (-0.11%) with the S&P 500 down -0.61% and the Nasdaq down -1%.
We are exactly halfway through earnings season (that number will explode higher this week) and revenue growth appears to be tracking towards +4.6% year-over-year (a tad better than expected) with earnings decline tracking towards -2.7% year-over-year (a bit worse than expected). Full-year earnings now sit at $224 expected, a +2.2% increase over the $219 of last year. Profit margins declining from 17.7% at their peak early last year to 16.2% is the big reason for the delta between revenues and earnings. Expect all this to update a lot in the next two quarters. A clear by-product of the weakening dollar: Companies with high foreign sales are outperforming companies with low foreign sales. It would sure seem one of the biggest stories of January was narrowing credit spreads (note here the spread compression in Investment Grade corporate bonds over the last three months). This has facilitated one of the biggest bond market rallies I have ever seen.
The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.65%, up 12 basis points today Top-performing sector for the day: Utilities (+0.87%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Communication Services (-1.31%) Nigeria presently ranks as the #1 nation in the world for use of cryptocurrency. Thailand and Turkey round out the top two. These three countries are known for the heavy presence of a criminal underground which may possibly (just maybe, possibly) explain some of this.
Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] (https://bahnsen.co/3DKsV4G) DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.6 | Well, hello and welcome to the Monday edition of D.C. today. There is a lot to chew on in the written DC today. I want to remind |
| 0:22.1 | everybody that listens to the podcast and watches the video that on Monday we generally do the |
| 0:28.3 | old school long form written where I really do quite a bit into different categories around |
| 0:34.0 | the market, around the economy, the big news stories. There's a lot of links, |
| 0:40.4 | housing, Federal Reserve, oil. We do an Ask David section, which we do every day. But then also |
| 0:48.7 | Monday we have the against doomsdayism section. So Monday's written is always pretty robust. A lot goes into it over the |
| 0:55.6 | weekend. And so that's what today's is. So feel free to go to the DC Today.com to read up on that. |
| 1:03.5 | But for those that are just pure podcast or video consumers, we'll give you a few things right now |
| 1:09.7 | and go from there. The market closed down today, |
| 1:12.3 | 36 points. Pretty boring day. S&P was down a little bit more. Point 6%. The NASDAQ was down 1%. |
| 1:19.1 | Last night, futures were down 80. By the time I went to bed, they were down 100. I woke up. |
| 1:24.6 | They were down 200. And the market closed, excuse me, opened down about 150 |
| 1:29.3 | points and it kind of improved throughout the day. And then closed down only 36. So, |
| 1:35.8 | still in the middle of that earnings season and there's not really anything that is stupefyingly |
| 1:41.6 | negative or positive one way or the other going on. |
| 1:46.9 | Halfway through earnings season, we are now tracking to the kind of recalibrated estimate |
| 1:53.4 | of 4.6% year-over-year revenue growth in 2023, and that's a little bit higher than it |
| 2:00.7 | had been expected, but then 2.7% year-over-year |
| 2:05.0 | earnings negative growth, you know, earnings contraction, tiny bit worse than expected for whatever |
| 2:12.0 | that's worth. But with only halfway through earnings season, those numbers will get updated more. |
| 2:27.0 | Full year earnings right now, the analyst consensus level is at $224 is a share of S&P 500 earnings. |
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