The DC Today - Thursday, June 15, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 15 June 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42KWXyW
Markets rallied some more today as bond yields dropped further even though the curve inverted more (as long-dated yields dropped more than short-dated). The odds for a hike at the next meeting (which is six weeks away, I should point out) moved to 67% for a 25-basis point hike and 33% for no move again. Odds are evenly split that by the end of the year we will either be at the current level or lower, versus a further hike.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.1 | Well, hello and welcome to the DC Today Thursday edition, day after Fed Day, apparently is the best day. Dow rallying 428 points up 1 and a quarter |
| 0:26.0 | percent, the S&P up nearly 1 and a quarter percent, and the NASDAQ up just a little less than 1 and a |
| 0:31.8 | quarter percent. So very comparable returns across all three market indices and one of those very rare days where |
| 0:38.3 | all 11 sectors are in the green. |
| 0:41.2 | The worst performing sector was real estate and it was up 0.34%. |
| 0:46.3 | Healthcare was the leading performing sector and it was up over 1.5%. |
| 0:52.0 | You had bonds rallying significantly. |
| 0:55.1 | The tenure was down eight basis points in a yield to 372. |
| 0:59.9 | So you had a big rally in bonds across the curve. |
| 1:04.1 | Oil was up almost three and a half percent back to 70.55. |
| 1:11.5 | So whether you're talking about equities, bonds, commodities, you pretty much had a risk |
| 1:18.4 | on day across the board. |
| 1:20.6 | Why would that happen? |
| 1:21.8 | Well, I think it's interesting divergence because the Fed Fund futures are still pricing a 63 to 67% chance |
| 1:32.3 | of a rate hike next month. I don't believe it will happen, but I have certainly been wrong |
| 1:39.1 | about it before, as have many others, and I most certainly don't care if it happens. |
| 1:45.0 | But I wouldn't care to defend the position that it won't. |
| 1:50.2 | I am sensitive to the fact that I, like anyone, am guilty of confusing what I think ought to be with what I think will. |
| 1:58.0 | But if someone were to say to me to place a bet with USC's football season success |
| 2:05.3 | on the line this coming fall, I would be betting that they're done. And so I am trying to |
| 2:12.5 | intellectually separate what I think they ought to do, which is be done from what I think they will do, |
... |
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