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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Monday, June 12, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Growth Investing, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Monetary Policy, Business, Retirement Planning, Investing, Estate Planning

4.9 • 572 Ratings

🗓️ 12 June 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N1hlWQ

  • Futures opened flat last night and stayed flat throughout the night up until my early morning wake-up. They inched higher in the hours before the opening.
  • The market opened up over +100 points and stayed up through most of the day, closing near a high
  • The Dow closed up +190 points (+0.56%) with the S&P 500 up +0.94% and the Nasdaq +1.53%.
  • There are now less than 3,000 companies active and trading in U.S. public markets, versus almost 10,000 that are backed by private equity, and nearly 40,000 backed by venture capital. There are 32 million small/mid/family businesses. Naturally, the 3,000 public companies are what the media focuses on as a bellwether of the U.S. economy.
  • A great call we made in 2020 was a huge boom of M&A that would come out of the low-rate and post-COVID moment. Low rates were an economic argument; the post-COVID observation was sociological (many deals got done or accelerated behind newfound catalysts). That pushed up the values of investment banks, private equity shops, private lenders, and others in the advice chain of this financial ecosystem. Massive M&A peaked 18 months ago, re-pricings have taken place, and in the ebb and flow of the M&A world we would not be surprised to see a new era of financial activity take place on the other side of this.
  • The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.73%, down one basis point on the day
  • Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+2.07%)
  • Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-0.97%)

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:15.4

Hello and welcome to the Monday edition of DC today. We are now into the middle of June. And of course, the second

0:24.3

quarter and first half of the year will wrap up as we complete these last few weeks. But it should

0:29.9

be a little bit adventurous of a few weeks. We have the Fed meeting starting tomorrow, Tuesday,

0:35.8

the 13th. And then they will make their announcement

0:38.4

on Wednesday, the 14th of what the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee, has decided

0:44.7

to do for interest rates at this time. And we also will get on Wednesday, the month of May

0:51.1

CPI Consumer price index figure.

0:56.1

And we really won't have much else by way a company earnings.

1:00.6

So kind of Fed oriented and inflation, maybe just macroeconomic data may drive where things go.

1:08.5

Now, when I say Fed, it's important to point out, and this is kind of the

1:12.4

major comment I'll make today. I'll leave this one nice and short. The Fed is widely expected on

1:20.6

Wednesday to pause, to not move rates, you know, something in the range of a 75% implied probability in the futures market

1:28.9

of no action this Wednesday, and yet still over a 60% probability of raising rates again

1:36.0

next month in July. So the Fed will say something, one way or the other, on Wednesday of this

1:41.7

week, that gives markets some feel for where they are.

1:45.2

And I expect that's what they will do.

1:47.2

Now, that's not the same thing as saying it's what they will end up doing.

1:51.3

Meaning, I expect they will talk Wednesday of this week as if they're going to raise rates

1:55.9

next month and then wait and see market response and wait and see if some of the tightening

2:00.8

gets done for them by job boning,

2:04.2

while utilizing forward guidance to try to affect a policy outcome.

...

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