The DC Today - Monday, January 23, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 23 January 2023
⏱️ 16 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Futures opened last night pretty close to flat (down -20 points) and stayed right there into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a dead flat open pre-market when I first woke up. The market opened flat but moved up from there and stayed up with a few zigs and zags along the way (see chart below) The Dow closed up +254 points (+0.76%), with the S&P 500 up +1.19% and the Nasdaq up +2%
The worst performers of 2022 are so far the best performers into 2023, partially as tax loss selling leads to re-buying post-wash sale rules. The “dividend payers” outperformed the “non-payers” in the S&P 500 by 23% last year. Dividends paid in the S&P 500 last year were $563 billion, the highest amount in history. Dividends were 26% of the return of the market in the 2010s and the 1990s but 100% of the return in the 2000s (when the market had a negative price return). Prior to that, dividends had averaged between 40% and 70% of the market return every decade for fifty years. The current dividend payout ratio of the S&P 500 is 33%; it has averaged 48% for nearly a hundred years but has not gotten back to that average since the financial crisis. Selectivity is crucial. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.52%, up 3.7 basis points on the day. Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+2.28%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-0.20%) TIP spreads show implied inflation for ten years at 2.1% now, down from over 3% less than a year ago. Shorter term inflation expectations (5-year) evidenced in the TIPS market (treasury inflation-protected securities) has gone from 3.6% at the high to 2.1% now. Whether 10-year or 5-year, the bond market has seen a collapse in inflation expectations in recent months.
Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3QZ6Y7w DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:16.4 | Well, hello and welcome to the Monday edition of the DC today, our special longer version, |
| 0:24.3 | and there's quite a bit to chew on at the DC Today.com. |
| 0:27.8 | I'm going to walk you through some of the highlights now. |
| 0:30.3 | For those of you listening on podcasts or watching on video, am I right? |
| 0:34.5 | I think this is the first Monday, D.C DC today of the year. There may have been one other |
| 0:40.6 | because the Monday version we had to do on Tuesday at least twice because of New Year's Day and |
| 0:46.5 | MLK Day. I can't remember what the week in between. So anyways, I am in the New York office studio |
| 0:53.1 | and we'll be here in New York all week and there will be a number of different TV appearances and interviews. |
| 0:59.9 | There's also just a lot of client meetings and portfolio things and speaking engagements going on. |
| 1:04.8 | It's a pretty massively busy week. |
| 1:07.6 | In fact, I'm going to have Trevor Cummings do the DC today. Actually, I think it's |
| 1:14.1 | Brian Sightel doing it tomorrow, Tuesday. Trevor Cummings doing it on Thursday. I'll be with you on |
| 1:19.6 | Wednesday. And then we're going to have the normal dividend cafe that I'll record from here in New York |
| 1:25.2 | on Friday. Speaking of that, Dividend Cafe, if you missed it from the Friday before, particularly the |
| 1:31.2 | video, for those of you like watching video, we did add all of the charts as I was talking |
| 1:37.7 | to the different things I was going through. |
| 1:39.3 | And I'd encourage you to check that out if the subject of housing is important to you. |
| 1:44.3 | So let's talk about the market today. and then we'll kind of cover a few more |
| 1:48.1 | evergreen things that may be on your mind. |
| 1:52.7 | And actually, even apart from evergreen, there are some things in the news cycle and |
| 1:58.6 | with the Fed I'm going to go through. The one thing I'd like to |
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