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Best of the Spectator

The Crash We Need: Is this the end of the easy-money era?

Best of the Spectator

The Spectator

News Commentary, News, Daily News, Society & Culture

4.4785 Ratings

🗓️ 7 February 2018

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With Liam Halligan, George Magnus, Matthew Parris, James Forsyth, Polly Morgan and Mary Wakefield.

Presented by Lara Prendergast.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This podcast is sponsored by Seller Plan from Berry Brothers and Rudd, collecting fine wines for future drinking.

0:13.0

Hello and welcome to The Spectator Podcast. I'm Lara Prendergast and on this week's episode, we'll be asking whether there's such a thing as a good financial crash.

0:22.6

We'll also be looking at the reality of the housing crisis and finally we'll be asking whether it's ever okay to hire dwarves to serve food at your party.

0:30.4

First up, earlier this week, the Dow Jones suffered its worst fall in six years, triggering a sell-off around the world.

0:36.4

In his cover piece this week, Liam Halligan says this is a good sign.

0:39.9

But is there such thing as a good crash?

0:42.2

Liam joins me now, along with the author and economist George Magnus.

0:45.7

So Liam, this crash looks quite dramatic.

0:47.8

Are you really telling us is a good thing?

0:50.0

It's dramatic, of course, if you're caught up in the thick of the trading.

0:54.8

And newspaper editors have been reaching for photos of people with green screens talking about 1987.

1:00.2

But when we had Black Friday in 1987, the Dow Jones, the main stock index of the world,

1:05.8

basically, US focused, lost a quarter of its value in a single day.

1:12.9

We've just seen a drop where the Dow lost 4.6% of its value. Pretty chunky, but manageable when you put it in that historic context.

1:19.0

It is the biggest ever points drop, but that's because the nominal points index has been

1:23.9

careening upwards ever since the Lehman collapse. Since Lehman, there's only been one year where the Dow has produced a negative return,

1:32.1

and it was a very small negative return.

1:33.9

In the last two years, we've had a 13% dollar terms return,

1:37.5

and then a 25% return last year, which of course the Donald is suggesting is because of his genius, but the market's

1:45.2

long been overvalued, it's long been pumped up by printed money, frankly, share buybacks

1:51.6

and dividend payments in some sense is unjustifiable. A correction was warranted. If this is the

1:56.8

first of a series of small corrections with gravity prevailing, then that is a good thing.

...

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