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Planet Money

The Consumer Sentiment vs. Consumer Spending Puzzle

Planet Money

NPR

Business, News

4.629.8K Ratings

🗓️ 21 November 2025

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Wherever consumer sentiment goes, consumer spending usually goes too. They’re like buddies that do everything together. Consumer sentiment wants a hair cut, its buddy consumer spending does too.

But lately, these friends are drifting apart.

While consumer sentiment about the economy is down … spending remains strong. 

And not just that… Interest rates are still high, inflation is growing, tariffs have made the prices of goods go up. And yet, consumer spending looks good. What gives?

Today - a consumer spending mystery. Is the economy actually healthy? Or is something distorting our view of the economy?

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This episode was hosted by Sarah Gonzalez and Kenny Malone. It was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Meg Cramer and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. It was engineered by Debbie Daughtry and Kwesi Lee. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is Planet Money from NPR.

0:06.1

Consumer sentiment is not doing great right now.

0:08.8

It is close to its lowest point in half a century.

0:12.6

Americans are, on average, not optimistic about the health of the economy.

0:17.7

They don't feel great about their jobs, their personal finances.

0:21.6

And when consumers don't feel hopeful about the economy, we usually do this one thing.

0:27.2

We save more and stop spending as much. You can see it in the data. When consumer sentiment is low,

0:32.3

consumer spending slows down. Consumer spending and consumer sentiment are like buddies that go everywhere together.

0:39.3

Yes, but Sarah, these buddies, something strange is happening to their friendship.

0:44.9

They're drifting apart. Yeah, consumer sentiment is like sad in his sweats on the couch, doing nothing.

0:51.8

Well, okay, yeah, but consumer spending is out there living it up, spending untold amounts

0:57.1

of money out all hours of the night at the club?

0:59.5

She sure is.

1:00.6

And when Deeran, Patky, an economist at the Boston Fed, saw this rift, I mean, it's mostly

1:07.7

bafflement, right?

1:08.6

We see these two numbers, which are significant measures

1:13.6

of barometers of economic activity, moving in ways that look discordant with each other.

1:19.6

That gives rise to a question about why that might be happening.

1:23.6

For some reason, despite many not-so-great economic factors, not just the low consumer sentiment, consumer spending is strong.

1:31.2

And it's making the economy look pretty good, resilient, actually.

1:35.8

But is it?

1:37.4

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Sarah Gonzalez.

...

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