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Modern War Institute

The Collapse of the Continuum of Conflict

Modern War Institute

John Amble

Government, News

4.7798 Ratings

🗓️ 4 April 2025

⏱️ 50 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

National security professionals often conceptualize a continuum of conflict as a framework to understand the wide variety of ways in which conflict can manifest itself. It extends from relative peace on one end, terrorism and low-intensity conflict, up through large-scale combat, all the way to strategic rivalry in which nuclear weapons even come into the picture. But what if that cognitive framework no long holds? In a recent article published by Foreign Affairs, Dr. Mara Karlin explored that question. A professor of practice at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a former assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities, she shares insights gleaned from ongoing wars, from Ukraine to the Middle East, and argues that warfare is increasingly defined by a mix of characteristics from across the continuum of conflict.   The MWI Podcast is produced with the generous support of the West Point Class of 1974.

Transcript

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0:00.0

If you're not entirely sure what victory is, or you feel like you can't attain it,

0:09.0

you have to look for an Ersat's victory.

0:12.0

And in the post-9-11 wars, that Ersat's victory became, don't die and don't get your troops

0:18.0

killed.

0:20.0

It's so hard to accept your paradigm is just wrong and over until you have a new paradigm.

0:27.6

And so you, you, like, had this specter of nuclear issues while also dealing with, like, terrorists on motorcycles, all within that same conflict.

0:40.6

Hey, welcome back to the MWI podcast.

0:43.1

Brought to you with the generous support of the West Point Class of 1974.

0:47.1

I'm John Amble, and I'm joined on this episode by Dr. Mara Carlin.

0:50.7

She is professor of practice at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International

0:54.7

Studies, and she has served in a variety of national security roles, including most recently

0:59.7

as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy Plans and Capabilities.

1:03.7

A few months ago, Mara wrote an article published in Foreign Affairs about a new era of what

1:08.0

she calls comprehensive conflict.

1:10.4

It's a really nuanced argument that weaves together a number of important observations and ideas,

1:14.6

but it rests in large part on the fact that what we know of is the continuum of conflict is changing.

1:19.6

That continuum is really a cognitive framework and it spans from terrorism and low-intensity conflict

1:25.6

through large-scale combat, all the way up to

1:28.2

rivalry involving strategic considerations like nuclear weapons.

1:31.9

But as she argues, today's battlefields are showing that that continuum is being collapsed.

1:36.9

It's a really insightful discussion that I hope you'll enjoy, but before we get to it, a couple

1:40.8

quick notes.

...

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