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FiveThirtyEight Politics

The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.6K Ratings

🗓️ 31 January 2022

⏱️ 59 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

You want to do some Morse code?

0:06.3

Do you know Morse code well enough to say something?

0:10.0

No, I have no idea about any Morse code.

0:12.0

I used to do SOS, right?

0:13.6

I don't know. I just feel like if I knew anyone who would kind of off the cuff be able to bang out some Morse code, it would be you.

0:21.6

I know a lot of **** about a little bit of ****.

0:24.0

I don't know like a little bit of **** about a lot of ****.

0:26.2

So I take it Morse code is very different from the kind of code that you write for the model.

0:31.9

Other than having the word code in them, then yeah, they don't really have anything common.

0:45.5

Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Drick.

0:49.8

For decades, polling has suggested that in general more Americans lead toward the Democratic Party

0:56.0

than the Republican Party.

0:57.6

That advantage has been so durable that it's become part of the conventional wisdom of American politics.

1:02.8

There are more Democrats than Republicans in America.

1:06.1

But a new Gallup poll suggests that over the past year that has changed and that more Americans now identify as Republicans.

1:13.9

It's been fodder for all kinds of commentary and analysis and today we're going to ask whether it's a good or bad use of polling.

1:21.1

We're also going to take a look at the race's most likely to determine control of the Senate this fall.

1:26.4

Senators are up for election this cycle in some of the most hotly contested battleground states,

1:31.0

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona to name a few.

1:34.5

And while history suggests that the House is likely to flip control,

1:37.8

the Senate has been less predictable.

1:39.8

You would need to do it all.

...

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