People are spending a lot on these models. They're presumably doing this because they're getting value from them. You can maybe argue like, oh, well, I don't think that value's real. I think people are just playing around, whatever, but like, whatever, they're paying for it. That's a pretty solid sign. We're almost giving you here the useful answer of like, I don't think it's a bubble because it's not burst yet. When it's burst yet, then you'll know it's a problem. People often make the case, oh, AI hasn't been profitable yet, and they're spending more to make it profitable. In reality, they'll have paid off the cost of all of the development they've done in the past very soon. It's just that they're doing more development for the future. Will they regret that spending? How much are they spending?

You can look at Nvidia and how much they're selling each year and you can see whether it keeps on growing and you can see whether stuff is kind of looking good to continue.

Math team is unusually easy for AI.

I'm going to be honest.

People often make claims about it being like this, you know, intuitive deep thing that it would mean that AI has achieved something, some huge level of intelligence for it to solve.

I think in practice this is just like, you know, making a piece of art.

It turns out to be farther down the capability street than people might have guessed.

We sort of had this with chess decades ago, right? Like, computers solved chess very well, and everyone was thinking of this as the pinnacle of reasoning, and everyone as a result kind of concluded, like, oh, well, of course computers can do chess. The, like, interesting scenario to think about, you know, 20% chance, 30% chance, something like this will happen. And And the next decade is like, you know, a 5% increase in unemployment over a very short period of time, like six months due to AI. The public's reaction to this will determine a lot. There will be very, very strong feelings about AI once this happens. I think there will be a bunch of very strong consensus on what to do or on things that we don't normally think of as things that people are considering.

I know when this happened with COVID, there was a several trillion dollar stimulus package.

In a matter of weeks to days, it was breakneck speed.

I don't know what that will look like for AI.

But I think it's like everything else in AI, it's exponential, which means it will pass

the point of people sort of care about it, to people really care about it, quite fast.

I just expect wherever we end up there will be this certain thing, which we would have

considered unimaginable a year ago.

Are we building towards the biggest economic boom in human history or the fastest collapse?

Right now, AI labs are burning billions on compute.

Anthropic just built a data center that uses as much power as Indiana State Capitol

and Microsoft's planning one that rivals New York City.

The bet?

The AI will eliminate entire categories of work before the money runs out.

David Owen and Yafa Edelman from Epoch AI have done something unusual. They've actually measured

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