The $200 Billion Shadow Market Behind Anthropic's Stock | Dio Casares

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Tech News, Technology, News

4.7 • 1.2K Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2026

⏱️ 44 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Anthropic's secondary market is tens of billions of dollars deep, stacked with SPVs on top of SPVs charging 10% fees plus carry, and almost entirely opaque. Dio Casares of Patagon breaks down how it actually works: which deals Anthropic blesses and which get cease-and-desists, why fake share certificates show up in 10-20% of executed deals, what tokenized equities and pre-IPO perps actually represent, and the mess of lawsuits and stuck shares coming when Anthropic finally IPOs. ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🟦 COINBASE ONE | MEMBER MONTH https://bankless.cc/coinbase-one 🧭OKX | TRADE, EARN, PAY to OKX | 120M+ USERS WORLDWIDE https://app.okx.com/join/USBANKLESS 🦊 METAMASK | DOWNLOAD NOW https://go.metamask.io/BL-Pod-Download 🌐BRIX | EMERGING MARKET YIELD https://bankless.cc/brix 💰NEXO | Get your 30-day access to Wealth Club Premier https://bankless.cc/nexo ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:40 What is Going on in Secondary Markets? 7:03 How Anthropic Secondary Markets Unfold 14:51 Anthropic’s Secondaries Social Elite 19:00 Emerging SPV Structure 21:51 Accidental Frauds? 27:04 After IPO Consequences 35:13 Private Market Lessons 38:21 Patagon Markets 43:54 Tokenized Perps 44:57 Closing Thoughts ------ RESOURCES Diogenes Cesares https://x.com/diogenes Patagon Markets https://patagonmarkets.com/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Transcript

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0:00.0	You can't just go to Anthropic and be like,
0:01.8	I want to buy a million dollars of your stock in this round,
0:05.1	please and thank you.
0:06.6	It's a very Wild West reputation and to your point,
0:10.0	like kind of insider setup.
0:12.8	You have people that have the access and sell the access,
0:15.5	and you have people that have the buyers and sell the buyers,
0:17.6	and you have a few people that do both.
0:19.8	Even people at funds, they make more money
0:22.3	doing these kinds of transactions now than doing primary capital into deals. And so a lot of people
0:29.2	are shifting into this market because of that. Bankless station, we are here with Dio Casares from Patagon.
0:38.1	Dio, welcome to the show.
0:39.4	Thanks for having me.
0:40.5	Dio, I've got some questions.
0:41.9	I think a lot of people have some questions around the Secondaries Market on Anthropics
0:47.1	stock, but also we could probably extend that to the private markets broadly.
0:51.3	Before I started asking you my questions, can you just like explain to me and to the
0:55.6	listeners, like where your perch is and why you have a vantage or a perspective on like what's
1:02.3	going on with anthropic, anthropic secondaries? So I guess Patagon has two core businesses.
1:08.4	We have our own prop investing business and then we have a client-facing
1:12.2	business. We've invested in secondary deals ourselves and then we've gotten into secondary deals
1:18.1	and that's kind of our client-facing business. We help people find access. So as like a service
	...

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