This is a series of CBS Island the World. I'm John Bachelor. Taiwan. Gordon Chang at

Gordon, G. Chang is with me. Jordan, there is an election in Taiwan coming up very quickly on

Saturday. What are the candidates and what are they represents? John there are

three candidates William Lye the Vice President of the Democratic Progressive Party, the

governing party, now has a lead which seems to be widening. There are two candidates, one from the Guo-Mand-Dong, the traditional party, and there's a new one, the Taiwan People's

Party.

Those of their candidates appear to be much more favorable to Beijing's position.

So it's shaping up as two pro-China candidates

and one pro-Taiwan candidate, if I can simplify things.

We welcome our colleague Steve Yates, chair of the America First Policy Institute's

China Policy Initiative.

Steve, a very good new year to you.

I've seen this election in Taiwan described as a edge of your seat and then again as we've

got this. Where is it now in your understanding with days to go?

Well just from personal experience generally, and then in watching things in Taiwan this time around, I would take nothing for granted.

All trends do point more towards continuity versus change in the presidential election.

William Lye has worked very, very hard as a candidate.

President Sye has campaigned on his behalf, representing some degree of continuity on policy.

The opposition is as Gordon described divided and there's sort of this outstanding question of will there be strategic voting in Taiwan where the lesser of the opposition candidates

voters switch to support the one more likely to succeed thus blocking Williams chance of winning a plurality.

And we are talking about a plurality outcome as most likely, not a majority outcome, as has happened

before in Taiwan.

...