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Bloomberg Surveillance

Surveillance: Risk Tolerance Has Changed, Joseph Cohen Says

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg

Business News, News, Investing, Business

3.81.2K Ratings

🗓️ 21 December 2018

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, thinks the risk tolerance of investors has changed. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says the Fed still has to define what they mean by "asymmetry." John Hudak, Brookings Governance Studies Senior Fellow, says General Mattis' resignation is connected to the "unstable behavior" and "erratic decision-making" of Trump. Stephen Gallo, BMO Capital Markets Head of European FX Strategy, expects the dollar to be stronger the first half of 2019. 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

With Bloomberg you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate,

0:04.7

behind your EV batteries environmental impact, behind sand. Yeah, sand, you get context.

0:10.8

And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg.com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene.

0:28.0

Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics finance investment and international relations find

0:35.4

Bloomberg surveillance on Apple Podcasts soundcloud bloomer.com and of course on the

0:41.4

Bloomberg. If you wanted a quiet end to the year, I'm afraid you are not getting one.

0:55.0

Joining us to discuss the legend of Wall Street, Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs advisory director and senior investment strategist,

1:02.0

and she joins us now good morning to you

1:04.2

Abby have we seen have we already seen the top of this bull market? I think that

1:10.4

we certainly reached stretched valuations in September.

1:15.8

You know, based upon the arithmetic of earnings and economic growth and interest rates, we thought

1:21.6

2850 for the S&P 500 was fair value.

1:25.9

We got a little bit higher, but we are of course having great difficulty holding that level.

1:31.2

We've now moved down to the low ends of valuation ranges

1:35.5

uh... for all the obvious reasons there's such uncertainty about the fundamental

1:40.0

outlook and risk tolerance perhaps most importantly has changed it's not that

1:46.2

the arithmetic of earnings expectations or economic forecast have changed very

1:51.4

much in recent weeks what has changed is the perception of how

1:55.9

willing investors are to ride out this confusion about what's happening in

2:01.8

Washington and of course the deceleration we're seeing

2:05.4

in other economies around the world.

2:07.4

So Abby I've had conversations about this through the week.

...

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