Surveillance: Forget About Fed Cut, says Sahm
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 20 June 2023
⏱️ 38 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Claudia Sahm, Former Federal Reserve Economist, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Sahm Consulting Founder, says forget about a Fed cut this year. Scott Chronert, Citi US Equity Strategist, says we need to navigate recession risk. Meghan Swiber, BofA Director of US Rates Strategy, says yields are at attractive levels. Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price Head of Global Multi-Asset & Chief Investment Officer, says the 60/40 portfolio needs to be "modernized." Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses Blinken, Xi's meeting in Beijing.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast I'm Tom Keane along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa |
| 0:10.2 | Abramowitz join us each day for insight from the best and economics geo politics finance |
| 0:16.0 | and investment subscribe to Bloomberg surveillance on demand on Apple Spotify and anywhere |
| 0:22.6 | you get your podcasts and always I'm Bloomberg dot com the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg |
| 0:29.1 | business app. This is a joy. It's a joy always to speak to Claudio Somme. She's found her |
| 0:34.0 | some consulting Bloomberg opinion columnist and formal Federal Reserve economist but far more |
| 0:40.4 | when you're that young and you come out of Michigan and you're codified with a rule in your name |
| 0:46.1 | is very few people in the economics game they can say that Claudio where did the Somme rule come |
| 0:52.6 | from was that a paper you did in your spare time on a trip to Europe and said I think I'm going |
| 0:57.4 | to come up with a rule how did the Somme rule get invented. The reason the Somme rule exists is |
| 1:03.6 | it was part of a policy proposal I had to automatically send out stimulus checks during a recession |
| 1:09.8 | and to calibrate you know how how much you send out how often so it really was a side bar |
| 1:15.6 | to the policy proposal is turned out to be considered relatively useful to people watching |
| 1:21.1 | recessions but that was never right point of it. The heritage of Michigan with Betsy Stevenson |
| 1:26.7 | and others there with Claudio Somme the Somme rule is now full front and center Colby Smith |
| 1:31.3 | writing it up in the FT 10 days ago how many states are in recession based on the Claudio Somme rule. |
| 1:40.0 | Right well there's different ways you can calculate at the state level but somewhere around 10 |
| 1:44.4 | or less states are in a place where they're unemployment rate at the state level has risen more |
| 1:50.4 | than a half a percentage point so that's kind of the rule at the national level we're not |
| 1:54.5 | calibrated at the state level and yet I think it's a good exercise to look under the hood and see |
| 1:59.6 | how various states are doing in terms of their unemployment and a big one within that group that |
| 2:06.0 | has you know this higher increase in unemployment is California and that's a this big state. |
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