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Bloomberg Surveillance

Surveillance: Fed Is Probably Already At Neutral, Darda Says

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg

Business News, News, Investing, Business

3.81.2K Ratings

🗓️ 18 December 2018

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says the justification to continue rising rates has evaporated. Jim O'Neill, Chatham House Chair and Goldman Sachs Former Chief Economist, says changing the manager will not solve the dilemmas of Manchester United. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist & Head of Political Analysis, says a government shutdown would only affect 25% of federal funding. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says better credit conditions in China haven't translated into liquidity. 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:16.2

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And context changes how you see things, how you change things, because context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg

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dot com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene.

0:43.3

Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance,

0:47.1

investment, and international relations.

0:49.7

Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Chief Economist and Chief Market

1:07.6

Strategists. Can they, Mike? Hi John, thanks for having me on. They can and they probably will as long as those Fed Funds

1:16.3

futures are still pricing in greater than a 50% probability of a rate hike on

1:22.0

Wednesday and the last I saw in the Bloomberg Terminal was

1:25.2

about a two-thirds probability in favor of hiking but I think what's more

1:29.2

important is the language in the directive on a go forward basis. So I think what financial markets are probably

1:36.4

looking for is what some are calling a dovish hike, meaning if they do raise rates an additional 25

1:42.0

basis points, really to move to a totally

1:44.9

neutral directive on the language. We sort of skip the decision and get straight to

1:49.1

the summary of economic projections as is typical with these meetings Mike and we look at the

1:53.6

dispersion and the dots where the Federal Reserve officials think rates

1:56.7

will be in 2019 there's a huge spread they're all over the place do we expect them to

2:01.6

coalesce on a lower rate compared to

2:03.7

where the median dot is right now? I would certainly be shocked if the dot plot

...

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