Surveillance: ECB & Real Rates With Pickering
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 10 December 2020
⏱️ 26 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Kallum Pickering, Berenberg Senior Economist, says the ECB is much more focused on inflation expectations than long-term rates. Lawrence Gostin, Georgetown University Professor of Medicine, says we may be at the beginning of the end of this pandemic. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, real interest rates are going to be more attractive for the Euro than for the dollar for the foreseeable future. Doug Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum President & Former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, says the first step in getting to a better economy is taking on the health crisis.
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| 0:33.0 | Daily, we bring you insight. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. |
| 0:43.0 | Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. |
| 0:49.5 | Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg.com, and of course, on the |
| 0:56.2 | Bloomberg. |
| 0:57.2 | Right now on this economy, Kalim Pickering joins us with Barrenburg, their senior economist |
| 1:02.1 | Kalim, your observations of the duration |
| 1:05.3 | that Christine Lagarde is looking out to |
| 1:07.5 | into 2022, into 2023. |
| 1:19.1 | I think what you hop here is a commitment to ease monetary policy beyond the horizon at which you would expect the Eurozone economy to return to its pre-pandemic level of GDP, which is probably going to happen |
| 1:25.4 | exclude in Italy mid-2020-22. |
| 1:28.3 | So the ECB here, I think, is much more focused on inflation and inflation expectations than it is long-term rates, |
| 1:36.0 | which are already at historic close. If the ECB can signal to markets that it will create |
| 1:42.0 | some inflation once the economy is at full employment |
| 1:44.8 | at least then the ECB can get a hold of real interest rates which is the thing that it has lost |
| 1:50.4 | control over that's what matters for economic outcomes. So here this is all |
| 1:54.6 | about generating higher inflation expectations which is why as you mentioned the |
| 1:59.8 | euro becomes a big deal for the ECB in trying to achieve those higher inflation expectations. |
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