Surveillance: Citi's Morse on Oil Downgrade
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 3 February 2020
⏱️ 40 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says the coronavirus is more of a supply shock than a demand shock outside of China. Miranda Carr, Haitong Securities Senior Analyst, says consumption might see a bigger hit from the coronavirus than manufacturing. Dr. Amesh Adalja, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Senior Scholar, expects the 2% fatality rate from the coronavirus to come down as we gain more patient data. Mickey Levy, Berenberg Capital Markets Chief Economist U.S., Americas & Asia, says China’s coronavirus is dampening effects on global trade and could postpone a widely anticipated pickup. Edward Morse, Citi Global Head of Commodities, discusses their latest cut in oil prices forecast.
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| 0:10.8 | And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg.com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene. |
| 0:28.0 | Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics finance investment and international relations |
| 0:34.4 | find Bloomberg surveillance on Apple Podcasts soundcloud bloomer.com and of course on the |
| 0:41.4 | Bloomberg. Chinese oil demand, as you said, dropping by about 3 billion, 3 billion barrels a day, 20% of total consumption, |
| 0:49.0 | the largest demand shock the oil market has suffered since the global financial crisis of |
| 0:53.7 | 2008. Why are we seeing oil prices getting a bit of a bid today? Why are they |
| 0:58.7 | having a lift? Why are they slightly up? Because everything was down so bad last |
| 1:02.3 | last week I guess. But is that really pricing it in? I mean last |
| 1:04.7 | week was not a bloodbath. Last week was a sell-off, but it was not. Let's be clear, people don't know |
| 1:09.8 | what to price in. They don't know how long this will go on for they don't know how much |
| 1:13.8 | worse it will get so let's ask the economists what to do John Riding bring capital |
| 1:17.9 | chief economic advisor joining us around the table here in New York good morning |
| 1:20.8 | to John good morning Johnson What do you tell clients? Well look what |
| 1:27.5 | has to try I think recognize first of all the coronavirus it's like all illnesses it's terrible it's spreading |
| 1:36.8 | rapidly |
| 1:38.7 | But what has to put it in perspective so what what is it analytically? And I've argued that it's more a |
| 1:45.2 | supply shock than it is a demand shock, at least for the rest of the world. We have an integrated |
| 1:51.1 | global supply chains. We had a shock to the supply chain last year from tariffs in the trade wars. |
| 1:59.0 | We got that behind us and now we have a supply chain shock coming out of the |
| 2:07.2 | factory staying closed which is a Chinese decision in terms of limiting the spread then of course the travel |
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