Surveillance: China Is Overconfident, Carr Says
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 17 May 2019
⏱️ 40 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, sees a permanent dollar shortage in China. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, thinks China is overconfident about how little tariffs impact their economy. Kate Bedingfield, Biden Deputy Campaign Manager, discusses Joe Biden's middle class roots. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Global CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, notes the amount of money in money market funds is the highest since the financial crisis. Amy Myers Jaffe, CFR Senior Fellow for Energy & the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security & Climate Change, says the oil market is too relaxed for the current level of risk.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | With Bloomberg you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, |
| 0:04.7 | behind your EV batteries environmental impact, behind sand. Yeah, sand, you get context. |
| 0:10.8 | And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg.com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene. |
| 0:28.0 | Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics finance investment and international relations find |
| 0:35.2 | Bloomberg surveillance on Apple Podcasts soundcloud bloomberg dot com and of course on the |
| 0:41.5 | Bloomberg. So let's begin with our top story. |
| 0:45.0 | China's state media signals a lack of interest in resuming talks with the United States. |
| 0:50.0 | Without new moves that show the U.S US is sincere, it is meaningless for its officials |
| 0:55.5 | to come to China and have trade talks. |
| 0:57.9 | This according to a commentary carried by state-run Xinhua news agency and the People's |
| 1:02.3 | Daily, otherwise known as the Communist Party mouthpiece. |
| 1:06.1 | In the FX market it means dollar strength and it means a Chinese currency heading towards |
| 1:10.5 | the seven mark. |
| 1:12.2 | Really pleased to say to weigh in on the FX market, |
| 1:14.5 | Shahab Jalanous joining us now, Credit Suisse head of FX and macro trading |
| 1:19.6 | strategy. Good morning to you Shahab. It's the question we always ask. Is China tolerating |
| 1:24.8 | Yuan weakness or is it engineering it? I think it's at the moment |
| 1:30.9 | of accepting Yuan weakness rather than necessarily engineering it. |
| 1:35.0 | You're seeing a widening gap between the offshore Riembi and the onshore level, the fixing onshore, which generally points to the market to trying to push the currency weaker as opposed to the authorities. |
| 1:49.0 | So we're getting to important levels now, the offshore remMB at $6.95 against the dollar is a level the market |
| 1:56.2 | expects to be protected. If that's not the case, and we rapidly go to 7, there could be a backlash to that in emerging markets generally actually I would say. |
| 2:07.0 | So let's start with the Chinese currency and the tolerance of officials. |
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