Welcome to the Bloomberg's surveillance podcast, I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan

Farrell and Lisa Abralwitz.

Daily we bring you insight from the best, an economics finance investment and international

relations find Bloomberg's surveillance, an Apple podcast suncloud, Bloomberg.com and

of course, on the Bloomberg term.

Michael Gapin joins us now, the chief US economist, the Barclays, and Mike you've pointed

out.

Let's go in March.

My question would be, what would stop him between now and then?

Well, really not much.

I mean, you would need a major shift in terms of, say, an Omicron effect on the economy,

a geopolitical event that would somehow disrupt the economy or risk-taking sentiment.

But in terms of where the Fed is on their dual mandate, inflation in the labor market,

they're basically there.

So coming out of the last employment report with the unemployment rate of 3.9, another

month of solid employment gains, a six-tenth rise in average hourly earnings, that pretty

much meets their bar.

So I think in January, at the January meeting, at the end of this month, they could very

well declare we're at full employment.

Yesterday, Powell said, we are at or very close to full employment.

They've already told us they're there on the inflation side.

So I don't really think anything stops them from going in March, except one of these

...