Marshall and Sagar here. Welcome to the exclusive realignment supercast feed where we do a bit of discussion, answer Q&A from folks who subscribed to the supercast and all those other good things. I just want to say real quick. This is the last supercast update. We're going to post before renewal time after our one year anniversary of running on supercast. I just want to start with a huge thank you to everyone who subscribed so far. Obviously the realignment is supported at a foundational level.

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High enough support there is huge so huge thank you and a reminder will offer a bit of free discussion, but if you'd like the full access to this episode, you can go to realignment dot supercast dot com or click the link at the top of the show note. So a couple of things I just want to start off with to open into for everyone. So number one.

We're probably going to keep doing this more and more. Soger temperature check on the 2024 Republican primary after yesterday's Trump indictment hearing.

Yeah, primary and choosing my words carefully Trump is stronger than ever. I have never I just think I said this on the show yesterday I tweeted something about this, but I was watching the news and participating in the news during the Trump arrest. And I was like, this man is the only man that matters in America.

Like it's the Trump era. It started the day came down the escalator. It'll end the day that he dies. How are you supposed to run against that? He's not even political. He's like met a cultural at this point Biden is the president. And he's the most irrelevant man in America on the day that Trump gets arrested. He literally was an afterthought during his own 10 year in office. By the way, that's not even necessarily a dig. That's like you probably good for him because you know the more that he's a contrast with Trump the better off he is. But again, there's actually an article about this. How someone was basically saying the Biden team probably wants that to be the real.

Yeah, they're the case is the more he's the story the better for us. They're right. I think they're right. So it's I'm not saying, you know, it's one of those everybody wins things. So I don't know how he could ever run to Sanchez. Yeah, so I mean, look, I've been I've been skeptical of the meatball case from the very beginning. I've said that very publicly. A lot of the Santa stands have gotten very mad over the over the last several months, but I feel very vindicated in a lot of my political.

Analysis around why I didn't think you ever had a shot in the first place. Yeah, my I said this to a group chat were in, but because you and I on 15 different levels aren't looking to get political jobs in DC in 2025.

We were in a dissentist administration, obviously, we were just able to look at the dissentist situation with clear eyes. The trend that I've just noticed is that a lot of the folks who are most invested in the idea of Ron to Santa someone who in this primary are really people who I think want jobs. I think they're people who see themselves as very explicitly tied to the fate of the Republican party because once again, if I were a Republican party operative.

I would look at 2024 and see Trump on the horizon just be utterly terrified. I would say to myself like, man, look at these midterm results. We'll talk about the Wisconsin Supreme Court race a little later. I would look at all of those factors and just say like man, like Ron to Santa and everything that's happening in Florida.

If there's a future for the Republican party, it's going to come via to Santa's and not Trump. But you and I are not Republican party professionals where do we want jobs in 2025. So if you're just able to look at it separate from wanting anything.

You're just like, oh, yeah, like this guy can't beat Trump in a presidential contest. This is a guy in Wall Street talk about Florida in terms of migration. This is a guy who is governor of a successful state who has faced a incredibly actually mediocre would be generous has faced a bottom tier Democratic party for the past several years.

When you remove him from that highly favorable environment and place him against Trump, there should be no expectation that those skill sets should translate to a dominance in the primary. That's why his poll numbers are going down.

Yeah, absolutely right. And I mean, look, I'm not denigrating the man. I think he's probably I think by and large, like he seems to be pretty successful in Florida. But the age of that type of person being able to explode on the national scene. It just doesn't exist right now for the Republican primary base.

They don't care about electability. They don't care about dynamism. They just care about Trump. And as long as they just care about Trump, then Trump is the only guy that matters. And the only reason they only way that he could possibly win is if he is if he was anointed by Trump, but he's not. So I just don't see it. I've never seen it from day one. I've always said if Trump is not if Trump is running, then he will be the nominee.

And this is the key thing where I really want to emphasize for people to your point about Republican voters not caring about electability. If the Republican party were the Democratic party.

In terms of the assumptions and driving forces, Ron DeSantis would be the nominee.

Let's say if

But the better example by the domineering personality. So Barack Obama is just like the uber talented politician of his political generation. But imagine a world where Barack Obama in 2016 was in the Trump role. So he wins the presidency, but he doesn't actually win the popular vote.

He has a bad midterms in 2018. He loses in 2020. And then he also has a bad 2022 midterms, which are tied to him very directly. He would just not be the nominee.

It will be very straightforward for basically every other Democrat to come out and say like, look guys, the only reason why we are a coherent political party is because we are a coalition of various groups who want political power.

We are less invested in the individual personality. If that personality cannot translate the win.

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