Hello and welcome to Coffeehouse Shots, The Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast. I'm Oscar

Evanson. I'm joined today by Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons. Now, the polls are open in Gorton and Denton

for the by-election, but as we eagerly await the result, we thought that we'd discuss economics,

because looking ahead to next week,

we've got the spring statement. Not a major fiscal event, as Rachel Reeves will be anxious to point

out, but one which is taking on lots more significance, not least by what's being floated.

Now, Michael, can you take us through some of the kites that they're flying?

Sure. Well, look, I think next Tuesday at 1230 or roundabout then, the Chancellor is going to stand up in the House of Commons with a big smile on her face because I think this is a spring statement that's potentially going to go quite well for her. And the reason it's going to go quite well for her is because there's going to be absolutely nothing in it at all. Nothing can go wrong.

And this is because she made a decision at the last budget that was, to be fair, recommended

by lots of economists and lots of organisations such as the IMF, which was that we should

only have one set piece fiscal event a year. And there's two ideas behind that. One of them is that

we don't have the horrendous uncertainty and speculation that kept me in a job in the run-up

to the previous budget so that markets are calmed and investors are calmed. But also, she also decided that the Office for Budget

Responsibility are not going to assess her headroom against the fiscal rules. So instead, we're going to

see a much kind of smaller package of economic forecast. We will hear what the OBR thinks about

growth. We will hear what the OBR thinks about growth. We will hear what the

OBR thinks about inflation. And I think on inflation, given that Kier Starner and the

Chancellor have now said that it's actually cost of living that they care about above all else,

she is going to be able to have some good news because I think as we get into the spring,

inflation is going to fall quite sharply.

Where things might not go so well for her are, of course, on unemployment. That's been rising over

the last few months in no small part due to actions she's taken. And actually this morning,

...