And the Hi, I'm Bill Crystal. Welcome to Conversations. I'm very pleased to be joined today by two good friends, Jay Kost, editor, contributing editor at the Weekly Standard,

and author a couple of books on American politics,

most recently a republic no more,

and Spence Abraham, a former senator from Michigan, Energy Secretary in the George

W Bush cabinet, and Michigan State Republican Chairman.

So a real pollster before that.

So two people very experienced with presidential campaigns and

the points here as we speak which is Monday afternoon right after South Carolina

Monday February 22nd Washington's birthday is just to try to analyze where we've been, where we are, where we're going.

Pretty wacky year, right?

I think very unpredictable, I think if you, you know, we've had a couple of these conversations and certainly

where we thought things were headed I want you go back and look at them I'm not

sure the buildup that was just given was earned by our most recent appearances, but it's definitely a surprise.

I think most people thought at this point it'd be a very different race, but it's now a very different

a smaller field on the Republican side

and where are we three weeks in and three contests right right and

who was well I think if you were to three contests. Right. Right.

Right.

Well, I think if you were to, at least my sense is that Donald Trump is very strong.

He's been able to hold most of the support.

His polls have demonstrated he has,

run very strongly on primary days,

...