Hello and thanks for joining this special two-part edition of Thoughts in the

market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy

for Morgan Stanley, and today I'm happy to be joined by Matthew Harrison, managing director and equity research analyst for biotechnology at Morgan Stanley.

Thanks for having me, Andrew.

Matthew, I think a good place to start is a little bit of background on yourself and the work that your team has been doing related to COVID-19.

We've been spending a lot of time talking over the last several weeks within a research department and we've been relying pretty heavily on the work that you and your team have been doing.

We've been focused on a few areas. I think first we've tried to build some predictive models and looking at different regional aspects of this, so whether it's how it's progressing in Europe or the U.S.

And then, you know, trying to figure out how broadly speaking companies are going to figure out how to get employees back to work.

So I guess one question that I like to start with companies are going to figure out how to get employees back to work.

So I guess one question that I like to start with is over the last weeks and months,

you've seen a number of different forecasts for how a large this outbreak could be, how it could spread, how lethal it could be.

And I wanted to get your thoughts on how people should think about those different estimates.

I think there are two things, right?

Broadly speaking, I think models are best for planning and preparation.

Models are great for scenario analysis, and if you sit in a seat where you need to figure out how bad could it be,

so how many ventilators do I need,

how many hospital beds do I need,

how many ICU beds do I need,

they're great for you to think about different scenarios.

And so there are two types of models that exist, right?

There's what I'll call traditional epiemologic models.

And those models require or use what I'll label probably fixed parameters.

...