Welcome the thoughts on the market. I'm Michael Zezes, head of public policy research and municipal strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection

between U.S. public policy and financial markets.

It's Wednesday, April 8th, 11 a.m. Eastern.

Flattening the curve is now part of the American vernacular, We're social distancing to avoid a steep increase in the amount of COVID patients,

so our hospitals don't get overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, Congress has been trying to flatten another curve, the economic growth curve,

facing a precipitous decline in second quarter. flatten another curve, the economic growth curve.

Facing a precipitous decline in second quarter GDP growth,

which our economists think will be more than 30%,

Congress passed the $2 trillion CARES Act

in the hope that its emergency assistance to businesses, households, and municipal

governments would allow the GDP growth to flatten out and start sloping upward again in the third

quarter.

Will it work?

To answer that question, investors should consider two more questions.

First, how quickly can the aid make it into the economy?

There have been anecdotal reports that small business loans are being dispersed slowly,

and the Fed hasn't yet announced how it plans to deploy. that small business loans are being dispersed slowly.

And the Fed hasn't yet announced how it plans to deploy the money Treasury was appropriated

to make loans and these credit markets.

We expect to get real numbers in the coming days as the first weekly reports on a variety of these programs come in,

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