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TechCheck

Software’s AI Nuclear Winter 5/30/24

TechCheck

CNBC

Faang, Business, Technology, Investing, Management, Disruptors, Tech, Cnbc

4.566 Ratings

🗓️ 30 May 2024

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Salesforce's quarterly revenue miss and weak guidance has sent shares plunging today, as the threat of AI looms over the cloud. Could it be a trend we're seeing across software, or might Salesforce’s subscription-based model just be harder to justify in the coming age of AI, especially compared to consumption-based names that have posted stronger quarters? We talked exclusively to Box CEO Aaron Levie on the trends he’s seeing in software cycles.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Salesforce is big tumble today dragging the market lower the software firm slumping on this quarterly revenue miss and pretty soft guidance

0:06.9

Could that be a trend to watch across software?

0:09.3

Deirdre Bosa digs into that for today's Tech Check and the item.

0:12.6

You must have been fascinated by these numbers last night.

0:15.2

Absolutely, and there's this phrase that is floating around Wall Street these days.

0:19.5

Software nuclear winter, and actually this morning I read a note that said we've moved from

0:23.8

winter to the software apocalypse. It's basically summed up in this one chart the

0:28.2

I. G. V. software ATF barely up on the year versus the Van X semi-ETF up 40% in the same time.

0:34.0

Just a massive delta between the two that goes against conventional wisdom.

0:38.0

Hardware is hard and expensive.

0:40.0

SAS is supposed to be one of the best business models ever scalability, low entry costs,

0:44.4

recurring revenue, but the software pain trade is only gaining more momentum this morning.

0:49.3

We also got soft outlooks from Work Dane into it, telling us that the weakness here is broad an enterprise software,

0:54.7

from SMBs to larger end markets.

0:57.4

There may be some green shoots, though, in consumption software. Snowflake data dog

1:02.0

confluence, they've been giving better outlooks for the second half of the year,

1:06.0

which presents a potentially very interesting dynamic.

1:09.0

If Gen AI applications are compute heavy, they require more usage of cloud

1:13.7

computing resources or API calls, then consumption-based models naturally

1:17.8

scale with the customer needs versus a sales force, which primarily sells on a subscription basis often structured

1:24.7

around a per seat model charging based on the number of users within a company that

1:28.7

have access to the software.

...

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