This is CBSI in the world. I'm John Batchford, the American economy, the global economy, the word tariffs, two Fs.

I welcome Gene Marks, a small business columnist for the Guardian newspaper, UK and U.S. edition, the Philadelphia Inquirer, hometown newspaper, and writing in other distinguished publications.

We go immediately to that word tariffs.

What we're looking at is projection of what the tariff talk in Washington will do this year to manufacturing in particular,

because it is very important to the Trump administration to revive manufacturing here in America, not just near-shoring, a U.S. shoring.

And, Jane, a very good evening to you. Thank you for this.

This is not a good word stagnation.

What's happened?

Well, this is what's being predicted right now by the Institute of Supply Management, John, which is an association of purchasing managers, both in the service and the manufacturing industry.

And right now they are forecasting and predicting stagflation, which is, you know, low unemployment with high inflation, unfortunately.

And they're predicting slowdown in manufacturing, a lot of bumps in the road for manufacturing,

and it's all caused by the tariffs.

So, and they're predicted tariffs.

Now, of course, we don't know where tariffs are going to take place and what's going to happen

and how all this is going to shake out. But right now they're making their estimates based on the most

recent tariffs assessed and they're making assumptions that the courts will overturn the

presidents, you know, move towards claiming these tariffs are part of the Emergency Economic Powers

Act.

So even though if they get turned over, though, the president will have other options to follow.

And so they're taking a worst case scenario that these tariffs actually kind of move through.

And it will have a negative impact on manufacturing.

But that's, John, it's short term.

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