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The UK in a Changing Europe Podcast

Sir John Curtice on predictions for the general election and historic election shocks

The UK in a Changing Europe Podcast

The UK in a Changing Europe Podcast

News

4.1102 Ratings

🗓️ 20 May 2024

⏱️ 76 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On this special episode of UKICE (I Tell), we have a live recording of our latest Unlocked event with the “doyen of British elections”, Sir John Curtice. Sir John needs little introduction to followers of British politics, as one of the UK’s best-known political scientists and the man who guides the nation through election nights for the BBC. Recently he calculated that on current polling, the Labour Party have a 99% chance of forming the next government. With the election looming, Sir John reflects on historic election shocks such as 1992, through to the changes of government in 1997 and 2010. He also offers an insight into what it is like to crunch the numbers on polling day while the nation awaits the exit poll. You can watch the event on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4C4fAZMJW4

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hi everyone, welcome to this latest in the UK and a changing Europe unlock series.

0:09.0

I'm going to do that really annoying thing now and say, my guest tonight needs no introduction and then introduce him.

0:16.0

It's Professor Sir John Curtis, who's Professor of Politics at the University of Strath-Clyde. He's also a senior fellow with UK and Changing Europe.

0:24.6

Basically worked with us from the start, haven't you?

0:26.6

I have indeed, Jess, but it's one of the most pressing decisions

0:30.6

that I've ever known the Economic and Social Research Council made.

0:34.6

It actually decided to start you before the 2015 election.

0:39.4

Yep. We officially started on the 1st of May, about two days before the election. And then, of course,

0:45.8

David Cameron won the overall majority he never anticipated, and the rest is history.

0:51.4

Indeed. What he didn't say has been the best 10 years of his career working with us,

0:54.8

but it was implied in his answer. Now, I regret to say I have lost a battle before this evening.

1:01.6

John and I agree on many things, and the one thing we fell out about at a conference recently

1:05.2

was we were in a room like this, and I said to the audience, even if you're in the room,

1:10.3

I want you to put your

1:11.5

questions on slide oh so it's a level playing field between people in the room

1:15.3

and people watching online and John said if you've got people in the room let them

1:19.2

speak so even though it goes against all my instincts because I like to be in

1:24.4

control we have got roving mics and I will say two things to you.

1:29.3

Firstly, and don't abuse this, if you hear something and have a pressing point or question your clarification you would like,

1:37.3

stick your hand up and I'll try and squeeze you in.

1:39.3

And we'll try and take a few questions from the audience as we go and be as inclusive as we can.

1:45.0

But let's just see how we get on, because I've got hundreds of questions to ask as well.

...

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