You're listening to serious inquiries only. Oh, Hello and welcome to serious inquiries only this is episode 165 I'm your host Thomas Smith

coming at you the day after the midterms 2018 yeah I am a jumble of thoughts and emotions. I've written down notes. I've read a lot. I've got so many thoughts. I don't know. You know, it's still early. I don't know how much this might change in the following weeks.

I know for example, my state of California has so much mail-in, well, so many mail-in ballots and so much opportunity for voters to do mail-in

ballots that we don't total up our tallies for a very long time. So if you see a very low vote total for California, just

wait because it'll go. It's happened actually last year too in some of those special elections

where I was very shocked and appalled because the numbers were so low

I thought there was all this excitement and then it took like a month and eventually the numbers were high.

Anyway but not just that in analysis and exit polls and all that they have to

configure all that. So a lot of thoughts though. I mean there's already plenty of

information enough to tell you. First off I want to just tell a little story about my night

last night. You may, if you follow me on social media you may have seen some very frantic disturbing

posts.

So here's what happened to me.

I was watching along.

I had MS NBC on and I had the 538 tracker going because I like 538. I appreciate, you know, I have confidence in them, I have

confidence in their models and their data and while of course it's a human thing,

poles are not anywhere near 100% reliable,

but enough data should give you a pretty good indication.

So I at least think the polling and the 538 model is about as good as we have really.

So I was following along their live tracker and they said they would plug in data as it came and certain things that maybe you or I wouldn't be able

to track very easily like turnout and likely voter stuff like how that would adjust their

model all this stuff so I was looking forward to seeing, you know, maybe some incremental ticks either way.

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