4 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 3 July 2025
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.
In this episode, we feature conversations with Sarah Wolfe & Rebecca Patterson.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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0:00.0 | This is an I-Heart podcast. |
0:07.0 | Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. |
0:15.0 | The single best idea is to have a good weekend. |
0:22.5 | It is a celebration of America with all the emotion. |
0:25.8 | It was really great to learn. |
0:26.9 | Actually, I used AI today to learn about, I'd read it in Rick Atkinson's book. |
0:33.0 | My book of the summer is Volume 2 of Rick Atkinson's wonderful American Revolution trilogy, the |
0:39.8 | third book to be written. And I remember in the first volume the emotion of a very sweltering |
0:45.5 | Philadelphia, as Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence. So I used AI today |
0:50.6 | to figure out the graph house in Philadelphia with some nice background. This whole AI thing |
0:56.5 | is really jaw-dropping to say the least. We use AI on Jobs Day, and part of that is to try |
1:05.0 | to look not at the immediate data, but at the noise around it. There is no greater noise now |
1:10.8 | than immigration and the changes in |
1:14.1 | immigration tied into our American labor economy. Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley. I think you're |
1:20.0 | getting the immigration story coming through in the household report. If you look at the participation |
1:24.5 | rate, it's come down now for about two months. |
1:33.3 | And that's actually, as expected, helping keep the labor market tight, even as we're seeing the slowing trend in payrolls. |
1:35.3 | So the unemployment rate, for example, last month would have been up to 4.6% if the participation |
1:40.9 | rate hadn't fallen. |
1:42.5 | Yeah, it's definitely taking out labor supply. Right now, |
1:45.1 | we have the participation rate 62.3%. That helped bring the unemployment rate down to 4.1, |
1:51.9 | even though the number of unemployed in the household survey was negative 200,000. So, of course, |
... |
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