Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Monday, December 29th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

Our top story so far, when the Shushine Boy starts giving you tips on precious metals, is it time to get out?

It's been high-hosts silver all December, with a metal up about 33% for the month heading into today.

But the shine is coming off fast. Spot silver is down around 9%, reversing a roughly 5% overnight rally.

Subu trade notes that a reversal this big has only happened twice before, most recently in 2011, when silver went on to

fall 16% over the next two days. This could be just end-of-the-year profit-taking, after a 170%

rally that has pushed silver to number three on the global asset market cap list, behind only

gold and invidia. Or it could be a sign of too much retail froth. Silver was a top business

search term on weekend, and some money managers are now calling it a meme trade. Seeking alpha

analyst James Ford, who runs the pragmatic investor, says it's time to dollar cost average

out of silver. He argues the risk award is unfavorable for both new longs and aggressive

shorts, with CTA's driving price action.

If the move is detached from fundamentals, he warns that there's no clear ceiling, and a lot of

people have $100 silver in their sights, which could become self-fulfilling. Even so, he expects

a substantial pullback, potentially as large as 50% in the next few months. Meanwhile,

investors are looking at what surging metals

means for retail. High gold and silver prices tend to squeeze margins for mass market and mid-tier

jewelers, while recyclers, scrap buyers and pawn operators benefit as they buy metal from consumers.

Luxury brands are less sensitive, but not immune to margin pressure. Analysts also flag a short-term

boost as retailers work through existing inventory at higher prices,

followed by a potential drag when they have to restock.

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