SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 6 June 2026
⏱️ 84 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series
01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy
05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets
11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines
15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026
23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios
33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes
44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation
53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty
59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha
01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges
01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged. |
| 0:03.0 | In markets, success doesn't come from predicting what happens next. |
| 0:08.0 | It comes from being prepared for what you can't predict. |
| 0:11.0 | In each episode, we go deep with some of the world's most thoughtful minds in investing, economics, and beyond |
| 0:18.0 | to understand how they think, how they prepare, and how they decide, and the |
| 0:22.3 | experiences that shaped how they see the world. |
| 0:25.4 | No noise, no shortcuts, just real conversations to help you think better and invest with confidence. |
| 0:35.7 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Katie |
| 0:39.7 | Kerminski and I, Niels Castro Blaston, where each week we take the polls of the global market |
| 0:43.7 | through the lens of a rules-based investor. This week we have a very special guest, namely |
| 0:48.7 | Marat Molliboka, Chief Risk Officer Director of Research at Efficient Capital Management, |
| 0:54.8 | who is here to discuss some of his recent papers as well as some of Katie's recent papers. |
| 1:00.2 | So there will be lots of things to dig into. |
| 1:03.4 | But first of all, Katie and Marat, it's great to have you both here. |
| 1:07.5 | How are you doing? |
| 1:08.3 | Is summer starting to set in where you are? |
| 1:13.2 | Sort of. I mean, we're getting there. We've had a very cold year this year in Boston. We had |
| 1:18.0 | lots of snow, and for some reason it rains every weekend. But, you know, it's beautiful on |
| 1:22.3 | Thursday today. Yeah. Remind us, Marat, why are you based? |
| 1:29.0 | Chicago Land. And as you know, in Chicago Land, the weather is very cold, |
| 1:33.1 | until it gets really cold in the winter, really hot in the summer, |
| 1:35.8 | so we're fortunate to enjoy the nice two weeks of the year. |
... |
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