SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 28 March 2026
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the series
01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments
01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning
04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes
06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly
09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality
14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down
17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty
24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints
27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic
37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations
41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets
49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained
56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.8 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with your Git and I, Neil's Castro Blaston, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:31.1 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:33.9 | It's great to have you back this week. |
| 0:37.1 | I was just going to say say i hope you're doing well |
| 0:39.0 | but i actually know you're battling a cold so i really really appreciate you persevering through |
| 0:44.0 | through this uh conversation today because i know how it feels when you're not a hundred percent |
| 0:49.7 | so really appreciate that um but it's really great to have you so welcome back thank you very much it's |
| 0:55.3 | always a pleasure to be back even when we feel cold even when we're called absolutely yeah |
| 1:01.3 | but it's a great time because the markets are really exciting so it's a great time there's a lot to |
| 1:06.7 | discuss there's a lot happening there is a lot happening without a doubt. So let's talk about |
| 1:13.3 | some of the things that's happening, that's catching our attention as we normally do. What's been |
| 1:18.3 | on your radar recently? Okay. So before we get to the markets, I'm going to talk about something |
| 1:24.8 | called the EM algorithm. So this is a mathematical algorithm, |
| 1:30.0 | which was really the granddaddy of all machine learning. |
| 1:34.5 | So that's the idea of, it's an iterative algorithm, |
| 1:38.5 | which allows us to, two stages, |
| 1:41.9 | one of them calculating expectation |
| 1:43.1 | and one of them maximizing the likelihood. |
| 1:46.4 | And the reason why I want to talk about this algorithm is because the person who invented it is a |
| 1:50.7 | guy called Arthur Dempster. He was a math professor at Harvard and he came up with that in the late |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.