SI359: Trend Following in a World That Loves Bubbles ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 2 August 2025

⏱️ 69 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?

09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence

10:43 - Industry performance update

14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance

21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?

23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare

26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today

36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins

43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted

53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?

58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity

01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation

01:07:17 - What is up for next week?

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.0	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:27.7	Welcome, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Mark Rasminski and I, Niels Castro Blasn, where each week we take the polls of the global market
0:32.7	through the lens of a rules-based investor. Mark, it is wonderful to have you back this week.
0:38.2	It feels like it's been a while.
0:39.5	I know it's not been longer than usual,
0:41.1	but how are you doing?
0:42.8	I've been busy.
0:44.3	I was actually just earlier this month in China
0:47.5	for my daughter's graduation from Peking University, PQU.
0:54.1	So I had a chance to be in China first time in about six years. from a Peking University, PQU.
0:58.8	So I had a chance to be in China first time in about six years or so,
1:01.0	and it was a wonderful experience.
1:03.6	Yeah, yeah, and I'd love to hear a little bit more of that.
1:06.8	I'm sure that's probably what's been on your radar later then.
1:12.4	But anyways, we do have a very nice lineup of different topics, thanks to you.
1:17.7	So I appreciate that and those we will be tackling in just a few minutes.
1:24.8	But before we do that, going back to my usual question to kind of catch up with you,
1:29.7	what have you been kind of focusing on since we last spoke?
1:34.1	I guess your China trip sounds like a natural place to start.
1:40.6	Well, the China trip was a great opportunity to see a country that is obviously important,
1:43.6	not only to the United States, but to the rest of the world.
	...

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