4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 30 July 2025
⏱️ 68 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell
05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?
10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?
13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?
16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it
21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data
24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity
28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation
32:15 - Do deficits even matter?
36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?
44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?
45:11 -
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0:00.0 | Will it make America great again? |
0:09.0 | Well, I thought America was pretty great before Donald Trump came in. |
0:13.0 | The more dramatic impact is going to be AI. |
0:16.0 | The question is, will those people find jobs, or will we end up with higher unemployment? |
0:21.6 | And my guess is that in jurisdictions like the United States, you will find another job. |
0:26.6 | It will still be jobs? The question is, will you get the same pay? |
0:30.6 | And probably not, but in some areas you'll bid up. |
0:33.6 | And ultimately, the rewards will be shared across across society but there will be winners and losers |
0:40.1 | imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders imagine learning from their experiences |
0:47.7 | their successes and their failures imagine no more welcome to top traders unplugged the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, |
0:58.5 | so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. |
1:03.1 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
1:07.1 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, |
1:10.8 | and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
1:15.8 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
1:20.5 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product |
1:25.5 | before you make investment decisions. |
1:32.3 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
1:45.0 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging, |
1:51.0 | but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle. |
1:58.0 | We want to dig deep into the minds of some of the most prominent experts to help us better |
2:03.0 | understand what this new global macro-driven world may look like. |
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