SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 715 Ratings
🗓️ 20 April 2024
⏱️ 62 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
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1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:27.4 | Welcome all welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Rob Carver and I, |
| 0:32.6 | Neil's Castro-Larsen, where each week we take the polls of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:38.7 | Rob, wonderful to have you back this week. Hope you're doing well, how things in the UK. |
| 0:41.4 | Yeah, I mean, it's okay here. |
| 0:42.3 | It's a bit cold and damp. |
| 0:45.2 | Niels is actually in Asia this week, |
| 0:47.9 | so looking at the window of your hotel room, |
| 0:50.6 | I'd say you've got considerably better weather than I have at the moment. |
| 0:52.6 | Well, you're absolutely right. |
| 0:53.6 | I'm in Singapore today. It's nice. It's warm. |
| 0:57.5 | So what can I say? Today, I think I have the better weather. Definitely. Not so much when it gets |
| 1:03.2 | humid later in the air, but at the moment, definitely. Yeah, no, absolutely. All right, well, |
| 1:07.8 | enough about the weather here. We've got questions. We've got some topics that are important for us to talk about today. |
| 1:15.4 | But as usual, as you know, I'm always curious to find out what's been on your radar besides the topics in the last few weeks since we last spoke. |
| 1:25.7 | Yeah, it's been quite a good year for me, and I guess probably a lot of CTAs. |
| 1:29.9 | I haven't done as well as some CTAs. |
| 1:32.5 | There's some astonishing numbers out there from a certain kind of fund, which we'll |
| 1:36.8 | touch on later. |
| 1:38.5 | So I'm up about 12.5% for the year so far, which I'm, I'm quite pleased with. So obviously, |
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