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Top Traders Unplugged

IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 17 April 2024

⏱️ 58 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer

04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?

07:19 - What drives the cycles?

09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles

12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?

14:39 - Interpreting the signals

17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?

21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in...

Transcript

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0:00.0

We're gradually moving away from a period of hyper monetization and QE.

0:12.0

I think that's a positive thing.

0:14.0

But we're also perhaps shifting to an era where there's more fiscal policy for the reasons

0:20.0

we've been discussing and, you know,

0:23.1

government's taking on more debt.

0:24.7

And that probably also means higher costs of funding the debt, higher long-term interest rates

0:31.6

for governments over time.

0:34.8

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences,

0:40.9

their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place

0:48.0

where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager,

0:52.6

due diligence, or investment career to the

0:54.8

next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the

1:00.2

discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does

1:04.8

not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant

1:10.3

risk of financial loss

1:11.5

with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from

1:16.5

the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions. Here's your host,

1:21.8

veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson.

1:35.1

For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been the opportunity to speak to a huge range of extraordinary people from all around the world.

1:38.3

In this series, I have invited one of them, namely Kevin Koldine, to host a series of in-depth

1:43.4

conversations to help uncover

1:45.6

and explain new ideas to make you a better investor.

...

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