SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 18 November 2023

⏱️ 66 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?

09:44 - Industry performance update

15:33 - A new war in sight?

21:17 - News about the US savings rate

23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?

30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies

41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio

50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation

58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power

01:03:35 - Thanks for listening

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic
0:06.7	investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.2	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:32.9	Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Alan Dunn and I, Neil's cast from Larson, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:37.7	Alan, wonderful to be back with you this week. How are you doing? How is Dublin treating you?
0:39.5	I'm good, Neil's. Good to be back.
0:42.6	Oh, good here. Nice sunny winter's morning.
0:44.8	But yeah, looking forward to speaking today.
0:46.9	I'm envious when you say sunny.
0:49.3	I don't think I've seen the sun for weeks now.
0:56.1	It has been the wettest autumn I can remember in the countries that I've been in for the last couple of months. But anyways, maybe Dublin is taking over the sunny place in Europe,
1:02.0	which would be unusual. It's been pretty wet here as well, but now the sun is shining this
1:06.5	morning. Good to hear. Anyways, an interesting lineup, I think, of topics, very kind of broad-based.
1:14.6	We're going to tackle a few different things from macro to trend, CTA, and so on and so forth.
1:21.3	Before we do that, not necessarily from what we're going to talk about today,
1:27.3	but is there anything in particular that's been on your radar recently?
1:30.2	It's been a while since you and I spoke.
1:32.0	Yeah, obviously it's been another interesting week in terms of bond moves this week.
1:38.4	And we had the CPI number on earlier this week,, obviously shows the declining inflation trend.
1:46.6	I was surprised at the magnitude of the reaction.
1:50.0	You know, when I checked the number and I saw the kind of the movement,
1:53.4	I had to check it a few times to see had I missed something.
	...

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