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Top Traders Unplugged

GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 22 November 2023

⏱️ 65 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins

07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?

12:27 - Where are we now?

17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?

23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?

26:37 - A sticky inflation

28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?

32:52 - A concern for real-estate?

38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?

46:21 - Are central bankers...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

When people imagine the word recession, they imagine this sort of precipitous collapse in everything.

0:14.5

You know, asset prices collapsing, employment collapsing.

0:18.8

And that's because we've been used to these sort of deep financial-based

0:22.1

recessions. You know, we had dot-com, we had the global financial crisis, we had Sweden in the

0:27.3

early 90s, we had Japan in the early 1990s. Well, we just don't have that today. I think you could

0:33.3

have a mild recession, but it's, you know, it may not even feel like a recession to a lot of

0:38.2

people. You know, we had a, we had a boom and a recovery that never really felt like a boom.

0:43.8

Maybe we end up with a recession and everybody feels like a recession.

0:48.7

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders.

0:52.4

Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes,

0:55.2

and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn

1:02.5

from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence

1:07.0

or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to

1:12.0

keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the

1:16.6

past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also

1:22.6

understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies,

1:26.6

and you need to request

1:27.9

and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product before

1:32.5

you make investment decisions.

1:34.4

Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson.

1:51.6

Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective.

2:02.3

This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle.

...

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