4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 22 November 2023
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 - Where are we now?
17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 - A sticky inflation
28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 - A concern for real-estate?
38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?
46:21 - Are central bankers...
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0:00.0 | When people imagine the word recession, they imagine this sort of precipitous collapse in everything. |
0:14.5 | You know, asset prices collapsing, employment collapsing. |
0:18.8 | And that's because we've been used to these sort of deep financial-based |
0:22.1 | recessions. You know, we had dot-com, we had the global financial crisis, we had Sweden in the |
0:27.3 | early 90s, we had Japan in the early 1990s. Well, we just don't have that today. I think you could |
0:33.3 | have a mild recession, but it's, you know, it may not even feel like a recession to a lot of |
0:38.2 | people. You know, we had a, we had a boom and a recovery that never really felt like a boom. |
0:43.8 | Maybe we end up with a recession and everybody feels like a recession. |
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1:12.0 | keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the |
1:16.6 | past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also |
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1:51.6 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
2:02.3 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle. |
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